A new report by XConnect, a Somos Company, in collaboration with Mobilesquared, has revealed that more than half of telecoms service providers globally anticipate a surge in SMS fraud in 2025. The study highlights deepening concerns over the integrity of SMS messaging, as less than a third of providers expect the channel to improve in security over the same period.
Titled “How Do We Create a Sustainable Future for A2P SMS?”, the report forecasts a 25.9% decline in total SMS traffic between 2024 and 2029, attributing the drop to rising costs and increasing fraud. Notably, the average cost to send an SMS internationally jumped by 85.2% from 2020 to 2024, with exclusivity agreements between aggregators and mobile operators blamed for inflating international termination rates (ITRs).
“After a decade of exponential growth, SMS is now grappling with issues tied to its maturity — over-monetisation, fraud, and artificially inflated traffic,” said Tim Ward of XConnect. He emphasized the need for real-time risk checks and targeted protections to restore trust in the platform.
The report singles out Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean as emerging hotbeds for fraud, particularly in markets where over 20% of Number Information Service Queries (NISQs) are invalid. Africa leads with 16 such markets, followed by Asia (7) and the Caribbean (5).
Despite ongoing threats, Mobilesquared Chief Messaging Officer Nick Lane noted that SMS remains the preferred channel for business messaging. “Our findings offer a roadmap to identify where fraud is likely to increase and how to protect the ecosystem while maintaining SMS as a cornerstone for rich messaging services,” he said.
In 2024, the majority of SMS traffic (84.2%) originated from “good” markets — where NISQ growth remains below 500% and ITRs are under $0.10. North America and Western Europe lead this group, with 67% and 60% respectively. By contrast, only 3.58% of global traffic came from “bad” markets with inflated costs and suspicious activity levels.
The report underlines the increasing use of NISQ by telecoms providers to ensure secure routing and revenue protection, reflecting industry efforts to combat fraud while paving the way for a more sustainable future in A2P SMS.
