The Nigerian state is crumbling as we watch, By Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim

The Nigerian State is crumbling. There is widespread violence orchestrated by state actors, and state-supported actors at the same time, that violent insurgencies and bandit-orchestrated violence are spreading and deepening. At the same time, institutions are crumbling as they get diverted to serve the interests of those in power. The judiciary has become a sad tale of the perpetuation of injustice to serve the interests of those in power. The tax authorities have been turned into a weapon to impoverish the people, as multiple taxation through bank withdrawals, VAT, and personal income taxes augmentation is all synchronized to get every last kobo from ordinary Nigerians whose income is incapable of meeting their daily needs. The police live simply to provide security for VIPs and not security for the people.  Meanwhile, electricity and other municipal charges have been multiplied to actively promote mass penury. The irony is that the president finds it funny and announces with glee that he has made the state set up an independent solar system for his house and office, just as he tells Nigerians they must pay the “unpayable” electricity charges being charged to consumers. Objective political science can only describe such policies as wickedness.

In his recent article on constant government violence organised against opposition members, my good friend Dakuku Peterside warns against the dangers of allowing violence to consume our democracy: “Democracies do not usually collapse because one day violence suddenly appears from nowhere. They decay when violence is normalised in increments—first as intimidation, then as disruption, then as reprisal, and finally as a parallel language of politics. Once public life begins to reward menace more than persuasion, elections stop being contests of ideas and become tests of brute capacity. At that point, the ballot is still printed, the rallies are still advertised, and the parties still campaign, but the civic meaning of politics has already been hollowed out.”

The tragedy of the situation is that the government is acting this way in a context in which decades of poor governance has already created a context of State fragility that can easily push the country into the abyss. Nigeria remains one of the most terrorism-affected countries in the world. There is mass violence driven primarily by Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), armed bandit networks, and emerging jihadist groups operating along the Sahel corridor.

The insurgency that began in 2009 has killed more than 40,000 people and displaced over 2 million civilians in northeastern Nigeria alone. Subsequently, militant violence developed in the Northwest –  in the Nigeria–Niger–Benin border region covering most States and then moved to the Northcentral zone of the country.

In the Northeast, terrorist attacks on army formations have increased considerably over the last six months and the terrorists appear to be besieging and encircling Maiduguri for takeover. In its propaganda messages published by its media wing, Amaq, ISWAP has been boasting of the successes of its attacks against the military in the zone and the elimination of officers. In the Northwest, terrorist forces from Mali and Niger have descended southwards and now occupy territory from Sokoto through Zamfara to Niger and Kwara states. Armed bandits from these forces with an agenda of pillaging and implementing a scorched earth policy have moved to the Northcentral and to the south as Benue and Plateau States continue to bleed. Increasingly the situation has been turning into an equal opportunity action with other youth gangs integrating into and spreading the chaos. 

The response of the Nigerian Government is to get the United States to deploy about 200 soldiers to Nigeria’s North-east to provide training and support counterterrorism operations. The deployment came after weeks of diplomatic tension between the Nigerian government and the United States, sparked by remarks from President Donald Trump, who claimed that a “Christian genocide” was carried out by Islamist militant groups in Nigeria. The reality is that Christians, Muslims and everyone else are being massacred. The Nigerian Government is yet to do what is necessary, expand the armed forces and adopt their strategy to successfully combat scattered fast moving asymmetrical bandit/terrorist warfare.

Rather than focus on trying to reassert state authority and re-establish peace, the government is concentrating on destroying the political opposition with the objective of ensuring they are not capable of contesting the 2027 elections. The risk is that they might succeed in disrupting the opposition and ALL OF US LOSE the country to terrorists and insurgents. What would it profit President Tinubu to destroy the political opposition only to find out he has no country to rule over?

Meanwhile, The Nigerian economy is doing very badly if you talk to the people and very well if you talk to the IMF. The more the Bretton Woods institutions praise President Tinubu for cutting fuel subsidy, floating the Naira and overtaxing the people, the more Nigerians groan on their plight. The divide is about the interest of the people and can clearly be seen when we look at agriculture. Under President Tinubu, Nigeria spent N51 billion ($34.4 million) on foreign rice in 2024, signalling a sharp reversal of the self-sufficiency gains by the previous administration. Today, local rice has become uncompetitive against cheaper imports. Government policy has imposed high production costs and expensive energy pricing Nigerian farmers out of their own market. Concordant reports indicate that farmers in key States such as Kano, Kebbi and Jigawa are exiting rice production.

Most of the rice mills that were flourishing under President Buhari have shut down operations because they cannot compete with the price of foreign rice. Small-scale millers are particularly vulnerable to the rising costs of diesel and high interest rates on loans. The Rice Millers Association of Nigeria has warned that the local industry is on the brink of collapse. Most surviving mills operate with massive unutilised capacity, which drives up their overhead costs. The federal government’s decision to grant import waivers on essential goods has created a crisis for agricultural production. Farmers find themselves in a new reality in which rice cultivation has become a loss-making venture. The collapse of the rice value chain is undoing years of carefully crafted agricultural self-sufficiency programming.

A situation in which State power is abused, government is extorting citizens, non-state actors are killing and maiming the people and the economy is made to work against the people is a dangerous one. The present conjecture of elections on the horizon that are being eroded of a level playing field adds to the overriding sense of growing injustice. If the government does not care, we the people must do what is necessary to save our country, our institutions and our democracy. The time has come to move from lamentations to action.