By Abdallah el-Kurebe
#NigeriaDecides2023 – A civil society organisation Yiaga Africa has said that the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for Rivers and Imo states are not consistent with its projections of the states.
This is contained in a statement by the Executive Director, Samson Itodo and the Chairperson of Watching The Vote, Dr. Aisha Abdullahi, tagged ‘Key findings’ on events that surrounded February 25 presidential and National Assembly (NASS) elections.
According to it, the state-level presidential results for Imo and Rivers are inconsistent with the Yiaga Africa WTV projections for both states.
“Rivers, INEC announced 231,591 votes for APC or 44.2%; 175,071 for LP or 33.4%; and 88,468 for PDP or 16.9%. This is in sharp contrast to the Yiaga Africa WTV estimates for Rivers which are: APC 21.7% ±5.0%; for LP 50.8% ±10.6%; and for PDP 22.2% ±6.5%.
“For Imo, INEC announced 66,406 for APC or 14.2%; 360,495 for LP or 77.1%; and 30,234 for PDP or 6.5%. Again, this is at variance with the Yiaga Africa WTV estimates for Imo which are: APC 5.1 ±2.3%; LP 88.1% ±3.8%; and PDP 5.7% ±2.3%,” the statement reads.
On the set-up and opening of polling units, the group said, there was the late arrival of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) officials and delayed commencement of polls.
The statement added that in the polling units monitored by its observers, they found that “INEC officials arrived at the polling units by 7:30 a.m. in only 27% of polling units.”
It stated that the late opening of polling units resulted in the late commencement of accreditation and voting which varied across the geo-political zones and that by 9:30 a.m., only 44% of sampled polling units had commenced accreditation and voting across the country.
“In the respective geo-political zones only, 46% of polling units in the North-Central zone, 46% of polling units in the North-East zone, 44% of polling units in the North West, and 63% of polling units in the South-West zone had commenced accreditation and voting.
“There were even more pronounced delays in the South-East and South-South zones, where only 11% of polling units in the South-East zone and 32% of polling units in the South-South zone had commenced.
“Challenges with locating polling units: As anticipated in Yiaga Africa’s pre-election report, voters encountered difficulties with locating polling units assigned to them by INEC following the migration of voters to polling units. Some voters didn’t receive the SMS notification sent by INEC which created confusion in some polling units.
“Deployment of security personnel: Security forces were observed at 88% of polling units. In 84% of the polling units, they were professional and non-partisan.
“Insufficient election materials: Yiaga Africa received reports of shortfalls in sensitive and non-sensitive materials such as ballot papers, indelible ink and result sheets,” the finding stated.
On the deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), Yiaga Africa stated that it observed the deployment of the BVAS across the polling units took place at 99% of polling units, and the BVAS was used throughout the day for the accreditation of voters.
It stated that in 89% of polling units, the BVAS functioned properly but in 8% of the polling units, the BVAS malfunctioned, and it was fixed and in 2% of the polling units, it malfunctioned and was replaced.
On misconduct at the polling units, Yiaga Africa noted that Watching The Vote (WTV) observers reported that at 6% of the polling units, voters faced intimidation, harassment or assault, while at 6% of the polling units, WTV observers reported situations that were identified as likely voter inducement.
The group further reported that at 98% of polling units, the polling officials obtained the number of accredited voters from the BVAS and recorded it on form EC.8A and at 98% of polling units, the polling officials showed how every ballot paper was marked to the party agents.
In terms of polling units level results transmission, in 83% of polling units, the Presiding Officers used the BVAS to scan/take a snapshot of the results sheet (Form EC 8A), and in 69% of polling units, the Presiding Officers attempted to transmit/send the polling unit result image to the INEC’s online database (IReV).
“Yiaga Africa estimates that national voter turnout for the 2023 Presidential election will be 29.4% ±1.0 based on registered voters and will be 31.3% ±1.0% based on the number of PVCs collected. Nationally, the percentage of rejected ballots is projected to be 3.6% ±0.3%. Yiaga Africa observed 8 instances (0.5% of polling units) of irregularities in voter turnout where turnout was over 100%.
“Based on reports from 97% (1,453 of 1507) of sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis shows that the All Progressives Congress (APC) should receive between 34.4% and 37.4% of the vote, Labour Party (LP) should receive between 24.2% and 28.4% of the votes, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) should receive between 4.6% and 6.4% of the vote, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) should receive between 28.3% and 31.1% of the vote, while no other political party should receive more than 0.3% of the vote.
“The PVT statistical analysis is based on the number of registered voters and not on the number of PVCs collected. Yiaga Africa estimates rejected ballots are between 3.3% and 3.9% while INEC’s official rejected ballot is 3.8%.
“These numbers do not reflect voters who were denied access to vote either through delay in election logistics or cases of violence and voter intimidation. Realistically, we do not know how it affected result outcomes,” it further stated.
On inconsistencies in election results, Yiaga Africa stated, “The state-level presidential results for Imo and Rivers are inconsistent with the Yiaga Africa WTV projections for both states.
“Rivers, INEC announced 231,591 votes for APC or 44.2%; 175,071 for LP or 33.4%; and 88,468 for PDP or 16.9%. This is in sharp contrast to the Yiaga Africa WTV estimates for Rivers which are: APC 21.7% ±5.0%; for LP 50.8% ±10.6%; and for PDP 22.2% ±6.5%.
“For Imo, INEC announced 66,406 for APC or 14.2%; 360,495 for LP or 77.1%; and 30,234 for PDP or 6.5%. Again, this is at variance with the Yiaga Africa WTV estimates for Imo which are: APC 5.1 ±2.3%; LP 88.1% ±3.8%; and PDP 5.7% ±2.3%.”
Yiaga Africa, therefore, recommended a “comprehensive audit and investigation to unravel the factors that led to the delay in the upload of election results on the online portal is critical. Persons found complicit in sabotaging critical aspects of the election should be sanctioned”.
It continued, “INEC should clarify the inconsistencies in some of the results, especially Presidential election results from Rivers and Imo states. Voting hours should be extended to 5 p.m. to increase voter participation in subsequent elections.
“Legal timelines for testing new electoral technologies should be introduced to Nigeria’s electoral legal framework.
“INEC should provide clarifications on its interpretation of key aspects of the legal framework on issues like results collation and transmission process, the threshold for determining the winner in an election and the commission’s power to review election results declared under duress or in contravention of the Electoral Act, INEC guidelines and Manual. INEC should sustain the uploads of polling unit results form EC 8A on its IReV portal.”
According to the group, “Incremental reforms have failed to inspire confidence in the electoral commission and the electoral process. The inconsistencies in presidential election results for states like Imo and Rivers make abundantly clear drastic steps are now needed and INEC must be fundamentally reformed.
“INEC must have authority over its state structures and have ultimate responsibility for the conduct of elections.”
