The Critical Minerals Africa (CMA) 2024 Summit commenced today in Cape Town, featuring expert analyses on Africa’s mineral market by research firms Project Blue and Rystad Energy, as well as The World Bank.
Nils Backeberg, Founder & Director at Project Blue, highlighted how geopolitical changes and the growing demand for energy-transition metals are reshaping Africa’s mineral sector. “Policy changes in countries like Botswana, Mozambique, the U.S., and regions in Europe are influencing trade and investment in minerals,” he said, emphasizing the effects of shifting global power dynamics on Africa’s mineral landscape.
Backeberg noted that U.S.-China trade tensions, alongside similar rivalries with Europe and Japan, could drive more investments in Africa’s mineral supply chain, with Tanzania emerging as a focal point. The U.S. recently announced plans to extend the Lobito Corridor, connecting Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Tanzania.
Meanwhile, China signed agreements with Tanzania and Zambia to support the TAZARA railway project, further strengthening its regional influence.
He added, “Africa’s geopolitical landscape offers significant opportunities, yet the supply chains are growing more complex.” The surging electric vehicle market is also expected to boost investment in Africa’s copper, lithium, and cobalt sectors, with China leading demand, Europe accelerating, and the U.S. projected to decelerate due to political shifts.
Martin Lokanc, Senior Mining Specialist at The World Bank, addressed how Africa’s population growth and urbanization are driving demand for critical minerals. With rapid urbanization expected to bring 60% of the global population into cities by 2050, Africa and India are positioned at the forefront of this demand surge.
“Decarbonization is a major disruptor, necessitating a reengineering of the global energy system that will require significant mineral inputs, particularly from Africa,” Lokanc stated. He projected that copper demand could double by 2050, presenting the DRC and Zambia with an opportunity to expand their global market share. Lokanc also stressed the need for local beneficiation to ensure mining profits benefit African economies.
Rystad Energy’s Senior Partner and Head of EMEA, Erik Holm Reiso, underscored Africa’s critical role in addressing the global metals shortage, with lithium demand expected to increase twelvefold by 2050.
Meanwhile, Wade Cherwayko, Co-founder & Director of Tronic Metals Ltd, added that Africa’s oil and gas resources should be harnessed to stabilize power supply, which is essential to sustaining critical mineral production and supporting energy diversification efforts.
Africa is a major producer of critical minerals, which are metals and minerals used in clean energy technologies and electric vehicles:
- Cobalt: Africa has 55% of the world’s cobalt reserves, with the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for over 70% of global output.
- Manganese: Africa has 47.65% of the world’s manganese reserves, with South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana accounting for over 60% of global production.
- Lithium: Africa has 30% of the world’s lithium reserves, with Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Mali holding substantial deposits.
- Graphite: Africa has 21.6% of the world’s natural graphite reserves.
- Copper: Africa has 5.9% of the world’s copper reserves.
- Nickel: Africa has 5.6% of the world’s nickel reserves.
- Iron ore: Africa has 0.6% of the world’s iron ore reserves.
Africa’s critical minerals are essential to the global transition to clean energy, which is expected to increase demand for these resources sixfold over the next 25 years. However, Africa has yet to fully capitalize on the opportunities presented by its natural resources.
