The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has identified the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as a major driver of the sevenfold increase in Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports since 2023.
The EIA, in its latest report, said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of 79,000 bpd recorded in 2023.
The agency attributed the surge largely to the commencement of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in January 2024, saying increased refinery output had boosted domestic supply, reduced imports and expanded Nigeria’s presence in international petroleum products markets.
Data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa cited by the EIA showed that about 350,000 bpd of the 561,000 bpd shipped during the second quarter of 2026 were exported, compared with an annual average of 46,000 bpd in 2023.
“With increased supply of petroleum products from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the EIA said.
Before the Dangote refinery began operations, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries collectively shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products for domestic and international markets.
The EIA said shipments increased significantly following the refinery’s start-up and received an additional boost after maintenance and expansion activities were completed in February 2026.
According to the agency, the refinery’s crude distillation capacity increased from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd following the expansion, allowing it to produce more refined petroleum products.
The EIA also linked the increase in shipments to supply disruptions caused by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which created additional demand for refined petroleum products from alternative sources.
Domestic distribution also increased significantly, with intra-Nigerian shipments reaching 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and 33,000 bpd in 2023.
The development has helped reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products. The country imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products in 2023, but seaborne imports had fallen to less than 130,000 bpd by the second quarter of 2026, according to the EIA.
Nigeria has also increased its exports to international markets, particularly Europe.
Vortexa data cited by the EIA showed that exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, up from 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 15,000 bpd in 2023.
The figures indicate the growing role of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria’s energy security, domestic fuel supply and emergence as a significant exporter of refined petroleum products.
Meanwhile, Dangote Refinery has announced plans to add another 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028.
The planned expansion would be in addition to its current capacity of about 700,000 bpd, potentially taking the refinery’s total capacity to approximately 1.4 million bpd.
The refinery’s Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, said long-lead equipment had already been procured, while construction contracts were being awarded for the expansion.
