African countries top the global list for increases in new breast cancer cases, with Equatorial Guinea recording the highest rise at 312 per cent, according to a Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study.
The study, published on The Lancet website on Monday, drew on population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, and interviews with family members or caregivers of women who died from breast cancer.
The analysis provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of female breast cancer burden and risk factors from 1990 to 2023 across 204 countries and territories, with projections to 2050.
Between 1990 and 2023, Equatorial Guinea saw the largest increase in new cases and the second-highest rise in deaths (212 per cent).
The surge in incidence was followed by Ethiopia (207 per cent), Egypt (189 per cent), Democratic Republic of the Congo (160 per cent), Mauritania (141 per cent), Uganda (135 per cent), Mali (133 per cent), and Liberia (129 per cent).
In Nigeria, the study revealed a substantial rise in both incidence and mortality, underscoring the growing public health burden and the urgent need for stronger prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies.
In 2023, Nigeria recorded 53,500 new cases — a 542.9 per cent increase since 1990 — with an age-standardised incidence rate of 72.1 per 100,000 (up 108.8 per cent from 1990).
Breast cancer deaths in Nigeria reached 26,200 in 2023, a 408.3 per cent increase since 1990, with an age-standardised death rate of 38.7 per 100,000 (up 73.5 per cent).
Globally, the study projects annual breast cancer deaths will rise 44 per cent from 764,000 in 2023 to nearly 1.4 million in 2050, mostly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
New cases worldwide are expected to increase by a third, from 2.3 million in 2023 to over 3.5 million in 2050.
Breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women globally, with 2.3 million new cases in 2023; 73 per cent occurred in high- and upper-middle-income countries.
Three times as many new cases were diagnosed in women aged 55 or older compared to those aged 20–54 in 2023, though incidence rates have risen in the younger group since 1990 while remaining stable in older women.
These patterns may reflect changing age structures and risk factors that differ between pre- and post-menopausal women.
The study linked 28 per cent of global breast cancer cases to six modifiable risk factors, including smoking, high blood sugar, and obesity.
High red meat consumption had the greatest impact, contributing to nearly 11 per cent of healthy life lost; high alcohol use and low physical activity each accounted for about 2 per cent.
Maintaining a healthy lifestyle — avoiding smoking, engaging in sufficient physical activity, reducing red meat intake, and keeping a healthy weight — could significantly lower risk.
Lead author Dr. Lisa Force stressed the need for collaborative efforts to build functional health systems capable of early diagnosis and comprehensive treatment in all countries.
She added that reducing the cost of therapies and ensuring universal health coverage includes breast cancer care essentials would protect patients from catastrophic costs and improve outcomes.
