A new report by SBM Intelligence has revealed the devastating impact of Nigeria’s farmer- herder crisis, which has displaced over 2.2 million people and intensified food insecurity across the country. The report paints a grim picture of growing instability as violent clashes continue to disrupt livelihoods, drive up food prices, and fuel insecurity nationwide.
Titled “A Threat to National Stability: How the Escalating Conflict Between Herders and Farming Communities in Nigeria’s Middle Belt Has Spread South While Maintaining Its Grip on the Country’s Food Basket (2019-2025),” the report highlights how the conflict has evolved over the past six years, spreading beyond its traditional stronghold in the Middle Belt to other regions.
A humanitarian and economic crisis
According to the report, entire communities have been uprooted, with over 2.2 million Nigerians forced from their homes. In Benue State alone, more than 300,000 people now live in makeshift camps, struggling to survive under harsh conditions.
The crisis has taken a heavy toll on Nigeria’s agricultural sector, particularly in the Middle Belt, the heart of the country’s food production. Disruptions caused by insecurity have drastically reduced food supply, leading to soaring prices and worsening inflation. Many farmers have abandoned their lands for fear of attacks, while the theft of livestock has crippled rural economies that depend on agriculture.
Beyond food inflation, the report warns of deeper economic repercussions. The loss of farmlands and livestock has significantly weakened Nigeria’s agricultural sector, reducing its contribution to the national GDP. This, in turn, has exacerbated poverty and unemployment, worsening economic hardship for millions of Nigerians.
From land disputes to organized crime
What began as a struggle over grazing land has now morphed into a complex security crisis, entangled with organized crime. The proliferation of arms in conflict-prone areas has fueled other criminal activities such as cattle rustling, banditry, and kidnapping for ransom. Attacks on farming communities have increased in frequency and intensity, leaving villages deserted and deepening ethnic and religious tensions.
Despite government interventions, including the National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP) and anti-open grazing laws in several states, a lasting solution remains elusive. Implementing these policies has been inconsistent, hampered by political resistance, inadequate funding, and logistical challenges. The unchecked flow of illegal arms into conflict zones has further fueled violence, making efforts to restore peace even more difficult.
The road ahead
As the conflict spreads southward to states like Edo and Ondo, the risk of a nationwide food crisis grows more imminent. SBM Intelligence warns that without decisive action, the situation could spiral further out of control, threatening national stability and economic recovery efforts.
The report calls for a multi-pronged approach to resolving the crisis, including:
- Strengthening security efforts to curb arms proliferation and dismantle criminal networks exploiting the conflict.
- Implementing agricultural reforms to support displaced farmers and promote climate-resilient farming techniques.
- Improving conflict resolution mechanisms to address longstanding grievances between herders and farmers.
Nigeria’s farmer- herder crisis remains one of the country’s most pressing security and economic challenges. Without urgent intervention, millions more could face displacement, hunger, and economic hardship—deepening an already fragile national crisis.
