By Fidel Amakye Owusu
Even though coups in West Africa are becoming common, the current one in Niger has touched nerves in ways previous ones have not.
Apart from the fact that it happened at the doorstep of Nigeria, the regional power, it has come at a time earlier ones are posing regional challenges and attracting elements actors in the region are uncomfortable with.
And so what?
In response, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has unleashed a list of unprecedented sanctions that do not match with what was put on Mali and Burkina Faso. More unprecedented, the regional force has threatened to intervene militarily to restore the democratically elected leadership.
Has it happened before?
Yes, ECOWAS has engaged in a few military interventions, but no, none was concerned with removing a military junta and reinstating a civilian one. The last intervention was in The Gambia. In that instance, ECOWAS forces enforced the election verdict an incumbent sought to overturn.
In the early 2000s regional forces intervene in Liberia and Sierra Leone as part of the effort to end over a decade of civil wars in the two neighbouring states. Earlier interventions in the late 1980s were not so successful. Despite these, Niger has factors that make it unique.
How unique is Niger?
Firstly, Niger is geographically vast. It is the largest territory in ECOWAS Africa. A combined size of The Gambia, Liberia and Sierra Leone is far less than half of Niger. This in itself creates a challenge of scope for forces that intend to intervene.
Again, there is an ethnic dimension to what is happening in Niger. The deposed president comes from a minority group (Diffar) who until recently were persecuted and “considered” alien to Niger. I have written about that. This could give an ethnic advantage to the junta.
The location of Niamey (the capital) in the south-west could grant the junta an advantage as Burkina Faso and Mali could show interest and hence support the coup makers. As coup makers themselves, any threat could be seen as an indirect one against them.
Any advantages?
Despite the vastness of Niger, the most viable place where the population is concentrated is in the south. This could be an advantage for intervening forces.
Also, the long border Nigeria has with the country gives it access and flexibility with troop deployment if the need be. Nigeria also has the numbers to undertake a conventional operation.
More controversially, the support ECOWAS is most likely to get from Western forces could prove decisive. They are already present.
