A tactical cold war appears to have just begun at the heart of Nigeria’s political power—the Aso Villa. The cabals surrounding the presidency have reportedly pushed Vice President Kashim Shettima to the wall, seemingly unaware of the potential magnitude of the backlash they are triggering.
By Musa Ismail Kontagora, PhD
In response, the Vice President has subtly but strategically declared a cold war. He appears prepared to deliver what could be the proverbial last straw that breaks the camel’s back. His political regrouping efforts could surpass even those of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, which were carried out discreetly but effectively.
I wish to advise the President and his “chicken cabinet” to exercise caution and learn to manage this emerging clash of interests. Failure to do so could unleash a political storm powerful enough to destroy the very foundation of the current administration. Indeed, the signs point to a brewing tempest.
The VP’s sense of betrayal, if left unchecked, may destabilize the ruling APC during these already trying times. He has exercised patience for two years—perhaps it’s time the President shows similar tolerance. Otherwise, the entire structure may collapse like a house of cards.
What the Vice President is initiating can best be described as a cold war—a calculated political suicide mission that could drag many others down with him. He is reportedly forming a formidable alliance capable of politically consuming his adversaries behind the scenes. He is no fool—far from it. Though known for his outspoken nature and alleged indulgences, he is a master of political maneuvering in his own right.
His body language signals danger. This new development could be even more hazardous to the APC than El-Rufai’s ongoing actions. If President Tinubu or his loyal attack dogs respond carelessly, the VP could render them politically obsolete—unmarketable in future elections. Kashim Shettima, like El-Rufai, is not to be trifled with. Any attack on him could trigger a ferocious response, with political consequences as explosive as Iran’s military retaliation tactics.
This sense of betrayal is not felt by the VP alone. Many of those who supported the controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket to ensure APC’s 2023 victory may now rally behind him in what appears to be a journey of no return from the Villa.
The true nature of the political crisis will soon unfold. Expect Governors and their deputies to clash openly. Senators may begin to challenge party leadership. And if more politicians adopt Wike’s brand of defiant politicking, the President and his loyal governors could find their foundations swept away while living in a fool’s paradise.
A growing number of Yoruba politicians are reportedly displeased with the way El-Rufai was abandoned by Tinubu. They remember how he was strategically brought into the inner circle of power, only to be discarded. Many of them remain silent due to tribal or political sentiments. But day by day, forces opposing Tinubu’s ambition continue to grow stronger—and more dangerous.
Even Lagos may soon witness open battles over the Governor’s succession. With the VP and his allies turning against the system, APC’s chances in the 2027 election are growing dim. Several governors and senators may openly or covertly support the VP’s cause before the next general election.
Given the treatment meted out to El-Rufai and Ganduje, who among the Northern political elite can Tinubu still count on for genuine support? Who will risk it all for him now? El-Rufai risked everything—his relationships, political capital, and personal safety—to support Tinubu. He defied former President Muhammadu Buhari and challenged the system. And yet, he was betrayed.
Now, El-Rufai is said to be on a mission to eject Tinubu from the Aso Villa—a possibility that many dismiss at their own peril. Ganduje, once a close ally who even relocated to Tinubu’s residence during the campaign, now takes orders from lesser-known figures like Festus Keyamo. Such humiliations will not be forgotten.
There are reports that Ganduje and the VP may team up with El-Rufai to destabilize the Tinubu camp from within. And I trust my Northern folks—they don’t forgive betrayal easily.
To make matters worse, the VP has openly expressed dissatisfaction with the administration’s zero-tolerance approach to opposition and criticism. His recent statements are a direct challenge to the President and should not be ignored. Otherwise, more damaging secrets could be revealed.
He has already cracked open a “can of worms,” indirectly accusing the National Assembly of corruption and portraying the judiciary as nothing more than a rubber stamp. In short, he has declared that power drunkenness and lack of direction now rule the day. These are not light allegations—and more fireworks may follow.
Interestingly, the Borno State Governor recently declared, “No Kashim, no APC.” This is no idle statement. Among the six geopolitical zones, the North-East Governors’ Forum remains the most united and ideologically grounded. They will fight to protect the VP’s position and the joint ticket.
Some now believe that former Lagos Governor Ambode, PDP stalwart Bode George, and others were right all along—that Tinubu may not truly be in charge of his own administration. Betrayal appears to be a recurring theme.
Whether anyone likes it or not, the North still holds the key to determining who becomes Nigeria’s President. And now, the real game has begun.
Keep your fingers crossed.
Ismail Kontagora is an Investment Advisor at Bilaad Reality
