The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says world total oil demand in 2021 is pegged at 96.5 million barrel per day (mb/d) and at 100.6 mb/d in 2022, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
OPEC outgoing secretary General, Mohammad Barkindo disclosed this on Monday at the 58th virtual meeting of the Joint Technical Committee − its first meeting of 2022.
Barkindo in an opening remark explained that looking at demand, it estimated world oil demand increasing by 5.7 mb/d in 2021 and by 4.2 mb/d, both unchanged from December 2021.
He stated that some of the recovery previously expected in the fourth quarter of 2021, shifted to first quarter of 2022, followed by a more steady recovery throughout second half of 2022, though risks were skewed towards the downside.
According to him, our world has learned several hard lessons over the past two years, and many economies are now better equipped today to manage COVID-19 and its side-effects.
“In addition to closely monitoring the evolving impacts of Omicron variant, other factors to consider will be varying speed of vaccine rollouts worldwide; the uneven pace of economic growth across global regions; and continued supply chain disruptions.
“Additionally, rising inflationary pressures and potential central bank responses remain key factors that require close monitoring,” he said.
In terms of the supply-side, he said that non-OPEC supply in 2021 was expected to grow by 700,000 b/d to average 63.7 mb/d, unchanged from December 2021.
He added that for 2022, non-OPEC supply growth was forecasted at 3.0 mb/d for an average of 66.7 mb/d, also unchanged from last month.
“We continued to monitor the potential near-term impacts if some leading consuming countries carry through with their announced plans to release an estimated 70 mb from their strategic oil reserves.
“Looking at inventories, preliminary data shows total OECD commercial stocks fell by 16mb in November 2021 to 2.721 billion barrels, which is 389mb lower than the same month one year ago and 211mb below the 2015-2019 average.
“However, today we will particularly focus on the prospects for a global supply surplus developing this year.
“As another chapter begins with the New Year 2022, let us remember with a sense of pride all that we have accomplished to date through our landmark Declaration of Cooperation.
“As we usher in the sixth year of collaboration, we move forward with confidence knowing that this highly effective and well-reputed framework for multilateral energy cooperation will once again prove to be the way of the future for this industry,” he said.
The OPEC secretary-general, however, said the industry stakeholders around the world would continue to validate the highly productive and valuable role that the group of producers continued to play.
He said that it had developed the system and tools for success, and now, would merely need to remain flexible and agile in constantly adapting to the latest requirements of the market.
