Credible 2027 elections and national security, By Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim

Yesterday, I participated in a workshop organised by the Alumni Association of the National Association of Security Studies on the theme of credible elections and national security in Nigeria. In his opening remarks, the Chair of the occasion, INEC Chairman Joash Amupitan SAN argued that elections and security are no parallel tracks but two sides of the same coin of national stability. He promised that under his leadership, the Commission’s approach to electoral administration would be anchored on the supremacy of the Constitution and the Electoral Act. He assured participants that INEC is committed to a free, fair and credible election. The lead presenter, Barrister Mike Igini, a former INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner gave an excellent lecture on the challenges of organizing free, fair and credible elections in Nigeria and the imperative of getting it right because elections with integrity are fundamental to the functioning of a democracy, serving as a means for citizens to choose their leaders and hold them accountable. 

Nigeria has a long history of electoral challenges that it has been confronting because it has had a political class with limited respect for citizens and their constitutional right of choosing those to exercise power on their behalf. Specifically, electoral fraud has been a significant challenge in Nigerian elections. This includes practices such as vote-buying, ballot stuffing, and manipulation, and indeed, the falsification of election results. Such behaviour has eroded trust in the electoral process and undermined the legitimacy of election outcomes.

Nigeria’s political class has also been effective in manipulating ethnic and religious identities to favour outcomes that would create bridges for them to accede to power. This has been at the cost of exacerbating tensions and indeed violence in the political system. This behaviour has been generating conflicts and undermining the democratic system. The influence of money in Nigerian politics has also been growing over the period and the people’s mandate, the vote, has been turned into a mundane commodity that is bought and sold to the highest bidder. The fact that poverty has been growing and deepening means that more people are being pushed into the unfortunate situation of selling their mandate for a single meal. In this context, the entire democratic system is losing its legitimacy and creating conditions for a total rejection of the system by the people.

The outcome from all these processes is the rise of voter apathy all over the country. Many eligible voters are taking the exit option from participation in elections. They are concerned about the depth of corruption in the system and are disillusioned about the political process that makes it very difficult for them to exercise their choice. The growing consensus is that the people’s vote no longer counts and outcomes are determined by a sect of Nigerians that have influence, money and access to political power.

I am concerned about the general drift that is emerging in many different African countries that is making elections completely meaningless. In last year’s elections in Tanzania, the government arrested all key opposition leaders, charged them to court for treason and jailed them for daring to oppose the President. When young persons protested against elections without choice, they were massacred on the streets. When they started running out of bullets, reinforcements were sent in from Kenya and Uganda. This disaster of elections without choice is becoming the future for the continent. Versions of this scenario have taken place recently in Congo, Guinea, Cameroon, Guinea Bissau, Benin and Uganda.

Increasingly, for the average African citizen, the term “election” no longer connotes democracy. It is a nightmare about an irresponsible ruling class that is no longer ready to subject itself to the people’s mandate. They remain in power through the illegitimate use of State power to suppress the rights of the people. There are still some countries in Africa such as Mauritius, Cape Verde, South Africa, Ghana, and Senegal where some measure of electoral integrity has been maintained but the general picture is bleak. Nonetheless, the general direction of movement remains troubling.

The African tragedy today is that gerontocratic autocracies have developed in most countries and they are determined to remain in power to the end of their lives and work towards being succeeded by their children. We have returned to the Africa of the 1970s and 1980s in which arbitrary rule, power without responsibility is the norm. The system is defined by a deep commitment to kleptocracy and a total disregard to the massive problem of youth unemployment. As repression grows, the civic sphere is shrinking, liberties are being curbed, political parties are emasculated, opposition leaders and journalists must praise the dictators in power or go to jail or exile if they are lucky. The composition of the power elite is quickly being reduced to family and ethnic oligarchies. The horizon is bleak.

We need to pose such larger questions in any serious reflection on credible elections and national security in Nigeria. Can we maintain a level playing for elections in Nigeria? How do we understand the massive pressure placed on opposition politicians, especially State governors to deflect to the ruling All Peoples’ Congress (APC)? Why are “recalcitrant” opposition elements being arrested and tried in court for corruption while there is a standing policy that opposition politicians that defect to the ruling party will not be tried for corruption. I fear for Nigeria’s democratic future as reckless behaviour by the ruling class intensifies in a context in which national security is being redefined as the security of those in power. Can “we the people” rescue democracy for the citizens?