Nigeria’s current account surplus fell sharply by 65.52 percent to $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, down from $4.06 billion recorded in the third quarter (Q3), according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The figures also show that the country’s overall balance of payments (BoP) surplus declined to $2.67 billion in Q4 2025 from $4.6 billion in the preceding quarter, reflecting mounting pressure on the external sector.
The CBN attributed the downturn to weakening export earnings and rising import demand, despite some support from remittances and capital inflows.
“Provisional balance of payments (BoP) statistics for Q4 2025 show a lower current account surplus of $1.40 billion, significantly below the $4.06 billion and $4.98 billion recorded in Q3 2025 and the corresponding period of 2024, respectively,” the apex bank said.
A breakdown of the data shows that the goods account surplus dropped by 60.93 percent to $1.77 billion from $4.53 billion, largely due to weaker export performance. Crude oil exports declined by 20.54 percent to $6.77 billion, while refined petroleum exports fell by 13.97 percent to $1.97 billion.
At the same time, non-oil imports surged by 24.93 percent to $8.77 billion, further squeezing the trade balance. Total exports declined to $13.36 billion from $15.31 billion in Q3, narrowing the trade surplus and weakening the current account position.
The data underscores Nigeria’s continued reliance on oil exports, leaving the economy exposed to fluctuations in global oil prices and production levels, alongside shifting import demand and capital flows.
Further pressure came from the primary income account, where the deficit widened by 47.30 percent to $3.27 billion, driven by higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.
However, the services account recorded a modest improvement, with net outflows narrowing to $3.32 billion from $3.95 billion, supported by reduced service imports.
The secondary income account, largely buoyed by diaspora remittances, provided some relief as inflows rose to $6.21 billion, helping to cushion the overall external position.
On the financial account, performance was mixed. Net borrowing increased to $1.96 billion in Q4 from $0.79 billion in Q3. Portfolio investment inflows rose significantly to $5.27 billion from $2.51 billion, suggesting renewed foreign interest in Nigerian assets.
In contrast, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined to $1.11 billion from $1.46 billion, indicating weaker long-term investor commitment.
Meanwhile, external reserves grew by 6.97 percent to $45.75 billion at the end of December 2025, up from $42.77 billion in September.
Overall, while stronger remittance inflows, portfolio investments, and rising reserves offered some support, the sharp drop in oil export earnings and rising imports highlight Nigeria’s persistent vulnerability to external shocks.
