Nigeria’s inflation expectations index edged down to 41.4 points in January 2026 from 41.7 points recorded in December 2025, indicating a marginal improvement in price sentiment across the economy, according to the latest survey by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The slight moderation, captured in the bank’s Inflation Expectations Survey, reflects shifting perceptions among businesses and households, though structural cost pressures remain elevated.
Businesses drove the improvement in outlook, recording a softening in inflation sentiment during the review period, while household expectations remained broadly high. Energy, transportation, exchange rate movements, insecurity, and interest rates were identified as the dominant factors shaping price perceptions.
Business inflation perception declined to 45.2 per cent in January from 48.3 per cent in December. Microbusinesses reported the highest perception level at 51.2 per cent, underscoring their exposure to rising input and logistics costs. In comparison, small businesses recorded the lowest reading at 40.8 per cent, suggesting relatively stronger resilience or cost management.
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Household sentiment remained elevated, with rural households posting a 55.0 per cent inflation perception rate, slightly higher than the 53.9 per cent reported by urban households.
The survey showed most respondents expect inflation to remain broadly unchanged over the next one, three and six months, pointing to stable short-term expectations despite lingering concerns about cost pressures.
Energy costs ranked as the most cited driver of inflation perception in January, as fuel and electricity prices continued to raise production, distribution and service delivery costs. Transportation followed closely, reflecting the pass-through effect of higher operating costs on consumer prices. Exchange rate volatility was highlighted as a major constraint for firms reliant on imports, while insecurity was linked to disruptions in agricultural output, supply chains and market access. Higher interest rates completed the top five concerns, with respondents noting the impact on borrowing costs and spending power.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 after a methodological revision by the National Bureau of Statistics. The agency is expected to release January 2026 inflation figures next week, with market participants watching for confirmation of a sustained disinflation trend following adjustments to the Consumer Price Index methodology.
The CBN survey remains a key forward-looking gauge for policymakers and investors, offering insight into how price expectations could influence consumption patterns, wage negotiations and business pricing decisions in the months ahead.
