Democracy is a system of government where power is vested in the people, either directly or through elected representatives. Key characteristics include free and fair elections, protection of individual rights and freedoms, the rule of law, and accountability of government to citizens.
Democracy promotes values such as equality, justice, transparency, and representation, allowing citizens to participate in decision-making processes and hold leaders accountable.
Nigeria’s democratic journey since 1999 has seen significant milestones and challenges. The country’s economy has grown, though with room for improvement, as being anchored by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Governors.
Nigeria’s 2027 elections will be a crucial test for democracy, just as President Bola Tinubu’s re-election will face minimal challenge from opposition parties, particularly the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) coalition led by figures like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi.
The All Democratic Alliance (ADA) faces significant challenges in defeating President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections. While ADA has garnered support from notable figures, its ability to unseat Tinubu remains uncertain.
The opposition’s internal divisions and differing ideologies might hinder ADA’s chances of success. Tinubu’s APC has a strong presence across Nigeria, making it difficult for ADA to gain traction.
Many key figures and prominent political players have also renewed their confidence in the APC and the Tinubu-led administration. This is evident in the growing number of political figures moving into the APC, suggesting a loss of support for their former parties.
These new entrants into what some describe as a “Noah’s Ark” have expressed relief at joining what they see as a safe and stable political platform. They commended the APC, President Tinubu, and the progressive Governors for their commitment to national interest.
It has been suggested that the ADA coalition is unlikely to gain widespread traction. Some observers argue that its leading figures no longer command strong influence in their local constituencies and may lack the political weight needed to mount a serious challenge.
According to Kaduna State Governor, Sen. Uba Sani, “ADA won’t pose a significant threat to Tinubu’s re-election bid.” He has further dismissed concerns about the ADA coalition posing any real threat to the APC or President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 chances.
Sen. Sani emphasized that Tinubu faces no credible threat from the ADA coalition or any other opposition group. He also questioned the coalition’s grassroots appeal, noting its limited engagement with pro-democracy activism and the concerns of everyday Nigerians.
Governor Sani contrasted his own background as a civil rights activist and Senator with that of the coalition leaders, pointing out their past roles in governance and their current criticisms of the APC.
Nasir El-Rufai, a key figure in the ADA coalition and former Kaduna State Governor, had stated that Tinubu’s re-election bid is weakened due to perceived APC shortcomings. However, Sani remains confident in Tinubu’s prospects, citing his performance and strong internal party support.
It is also worth noting that the coalition appears to include political figures with differing ideologies and ambitions, whose cooperation may not be sustained. Observers argue that democracy is a game of numbers, and the APC still commands the largest support base heading into 2027.
This is largely attributed to the performance of the party and its representatives, which many see as being on a positive trajectory. Supporters of the APC believe the party is positioned to win the 2027 general elections.
President Tinubu has consistently maintained that he does not interfere in the affairs of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the country’s electoral body. INEC has, in turn, continued to function independently, as demonstrated in the 2023 general elections and subsequent by-elections and off-cycle polls.
Zooming in on Kaduna State, one of the ADA’s notable figures, former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, has faced criticism for his record during his two terms in office. This has fueled debate over the leadership capacity of some ADA leaders.
In contrast, Governor Uba Sani has been praised by supporters as a leader bringing progress to Kaduna State. They see him as correcting shortcomings in governance and moving the state towards sustainable development.
During a recent state visit by President Tinubu, the President commended the achievements of Governor Uba Sani’s administration. Tinubu described Kaduna as one of Nigeria’s most promising states in terms of progress and purpose. He praised Governor Sani’s leadership and urged other state governors to emulate his example.
Several respected figures also commended the governor during the visit, including former Vice President Namadi Sambo, Speaker of the House of Representatives Dr. Abbas Tajuddeen, the Chairman of the Kaduna State Elders Forum Gen. Zamani Lekwot (rtd), Emir of Zazzau Amb. Ahmed Nuhu Bamalli, and NBTE Executive Secretary Prof. Idris Bugaje.
Meanwhile, the Kaduna State Government responded to public remarks by Nasir El-Rufai concerning recently commissioned projects in the state. In a statement, the government said its attention had been drawn to comments by the former governor, who claimed that the projects were all initiated during his administration.
According to a statement by Ibraheem Musa, Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, El-Rufai’s assertion was inaccurate. The statement clarified that three major projects commissioned by President Tinubu—the Institutes of Vocational Training and Skills Development, the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Specialist Hospital, and 100 CNG buses—were largely initiated and completed under Governor Uba Sani.
The statement emphasized that the vocational institutes were part of Governor Sani’s human capital development agenda and were certified by the NBTE as the best-equipped skills development centers in Nigeria. According to Prof. Idris Bugaje, no polytechnic or university in the country matches the quality of facilities found in these institutes.
The 100 CNG buses, launched by Governor Sani, aim to provide affordable and eco-friendly transportation while cushioning the effect of fuel subsidy removal. Workers, retirees, and students will enjoy free rides for six months, with subsidized fares available afterward.
Regarding the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Specialist Hospital, the state government noted that although it was originally conceived during Namadi Sambo’s tenure as governor, it was left incomplete for years. Governor Sani prioritized its completion, equipping the hospital with modern facilities and incorporating it into the state’s broader healthcare revitalization programme.
The hospital is now fully operational and seen as a symbol of renewed focus on healthcare delivery in Kaduna State.
The state government concluded that while everyone is entitled to their opinion, facts remain sacred. Governor Uba Sani’s administration has made tangible progress, and no amount of political revisionism can change that reality.
In a related development, the Kaduna State Government reaffirmed its commitment to good governance, transparency, and sustainable development. It stated that it would not be distracted by misinformation or political tension but would remain focused on delivering services to the people of the state.
Also reacting, the Uba Sani Legacy Projects Solidarity Assembly (ULEPSA), through a press statement signed by Khadija Mohammed, Director of Strategic Communication, asserted that no amount of political spin could undermine Governor Sani’s record. The group urged critics to allow the governor to continue his work without unnecessary distractions.
In conclusion, it appears increasingly unlikely that the ADA coalition will pose a serious challenge to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu or the APC in the 2027 elections. Many Nigerians have expressed renewed confidence in the current leadership. This sentiment is echoed in Kaduna State, where there is broad support for continuity and the consolidation of ongoing reforms.
So, 2027 appears promising for the APC at all levels, by the special grace of God.
Dan-Gaskiya, a Public Affairs Analyst, is based in Kaduna.
