A meteorologist, James Roemer of the global weather and agriculture website www.BestWeatherInc.com, has predicted that the final weeks of La Niña could result in a dry May to June for cocoa-producing parts of the African continent.
This is contained in a statement mailed to ASHENEWS by the media contact of bestweatherinc.com, Carol Livingston on Friday.
“That would add even more volatility to the cocoa market in the coming months,” Roemer holds.
The Omicron virus and worries over lower chocolate demand in Europe due to the Russia-Ukraine war already have created market volatility in the cocoa market.
“We can see here how much crop stress is occurring in Nigeria presently, but improved rainfall in Ghana and Ivory Coast in the last few weeks and little or no deficit in global cocoa stocks have helped to pressure the market,” Roemer said.
According to Roemer, Cotton, soybeans, wheat, coffee, and some other agricultural products had major trends over the past year. Cocoa has been in no-man’s land with both fake-out rallies and collapses and no distinct major price trends.
What about spring weather for West Africa? Presently, most models suggest good April weather, but Roemer is not running with the pack for May and June.
The waning La Niña, not a potential El Niño, could result in a dry May-June period. La Niña could bring some dryness if the Tropical North Atlantic Index goes negative, according to the Best Weather, Inc. analysis. A negative Tropical North Atlantic Index means that waters off West Africa would be cooler.
If an El Niño develops this year, it would affect the main West African cocoa crop more in the summer, fall and winter.
“If cool ocean waters continue off the west of Africa, and La Niña causes a dry May to June, this could cause concerns for the main West African cocoa crop. This is especially true if El Nino were to develop later in the year,” Roemer said.
Roemer added that he felt the warming of the planet and oceans over the last twenty to thirty years, in part from what Roemer believes is climate change, actually has been more net beneficial to West African cocoa, unlike some other crops.
James Roemer has 38 years of experience forecasting weather and analyzing its impact on major agricultural commodities. Www.BestWeatherInc.com provides weather insights and market analysis for most major agricultural crops around the world.
