Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated sharply to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 following a review of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), reflecting a significant slowdown in price pressures.
The latest CPI report showed that the index rose marginally to 131.2 points in December from 130.5 points in November, indicating a slower pace of increase in average prices across the economy.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation declined to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 from 17.33 per cent in November and was markedly lower than the 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024, underscoring a sharp deceleration over the 12 months.
According to the NBS, “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 131.2 in December 2025, up by 0.7 points from the previous month (130.5). The December 2025 year-on-year headline inflation rate stood at 15.15 per cent, relative to the November 2025 rate of 17.33 per cent.”
The bureau noted that the December inflation rate was 19.65 percentage points lower than the level recorded in December 2024, although the comparison was made under a revised base year.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation eased to 0.54 per cent in December from 1.22 per cent in November, pointing to softer short-term price pressures.
The NBS explained that the figures reflected a change in methodology following the rebasing of the CPI. Under the new approach, year-on-year inflation and sub-indices are calculated using a twelve-month average reference period, with the average CPI for 2024 set at 100, rather than a single-month base.
It said using a single-month base would have produced an artificial spike in December inflation due to base effects rather than actual price movements. The adjustment, the bureau added, aligns with international best practices under the IMF Consumer Price Index Manual and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI framework.
As part of the rebasing exercise, November inflation was revised upward to 17.33 per cent from the previously reported 14.45 per cent, highlighting the impact of the new methodology on recent inflation readings.
Despite the moderation, inflationary pressures over the year remained elevated. The twelve-month average inflation rate stood at 23.01 per cent in December 2025.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 6.06 percentage points of the year-on-year figure. Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 1.96 percentage points, transport 1.62 percentage points, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels added 1.28 percentage points.
Food inflation recorded one of the steepest declines, falling to 10.84 per cent year on year from 39.84 per cent in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 0.36 per cent, reversing the 1.13 per cent increase recorded in November.
The NBS attributed the drop to lower prices of staples such as tomatoes, garri, eggs, grains, vegetables, beans and fresh onions. The twelve-month average food inflation rate stood at 22.00 per cent.
Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, eased to 18.63 per cent year on year from 29.28 per cent a year earlier. Month on month, core inflation slowed to 0.58 per cent, while the twelve-month average rate remained high at 23.49 per cent.
Urban inflation fell to 14.85 per cent year on year from 37.29 per cent in December 2024, though month-on-month urban inflation edged up slightly to 0.99 per cent. Rural inflation declined to 14.56 per cent year on year and recorded a month-on-month fall of 0.55 per cent, compared with a 1.88 per cent increase in November.
At the state level, Abia recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rate at 19.03 per cent, followed by Ogun at 18.80 per cent and Katsina at 18.66 per cent, while Sokoto posted the lowest at 8.61 per cent.
The NBS, however, cautioned against direct interstate comparisons, noting that differences in consumption patterns and CPI weights across states could make such comparisons misleading.
Nairametrics
