Global cocoa prices have climbed to their highest level in 24 weeks, as persistent heavy rainfall across key producing countries, including Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire, has raised concerns over potential supply disruptions and crop damage.
The rally marks a strong recovery for cocoa futures, which had fallen sharply earlier this year after retreating from the record highs recorded in 2024. Market analysts say the latest surge is being driven by fears that excessive rainfall could reduce yields and worsen disease outbreaks in West Africa, the world’s leading cocoa-producing region.
September cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York climbed above $6,300 per metric tonne during the week, extending gains recorded over the past month as traders priced in increasing weather-related risks.
Industry observers noted that heavy rains have heightened the threat of black pod and brown rot diseases, while flooding in some farming communities could restrict access to cocoa plantations and delay harvesting activities. Similar concerns have been reported by farmers in Côte d’Ivoire, where excessive moisture has raised fears of lower production during the upcoming crop season.
Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, is also expected to experience lower output this season. Analysts attribute the anticipated decline to adverse weather conditions and reduced exports, factors that have further supported global prices.
The recent rebound represents a significant turnaround from the first quarter of 2026, when cocoa prices slipped to multi-year lows following improved supply expectations and weaker demand from chocolate manufacturers.
Despite the renewed strength in prices, analysts caution that the cocoa market remains highly volatile, with future movements likely to depend on weather conditions across West Africa and the pace of global demand recovery.
