The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says the world is heading into another period of dangerous heat over the next five years.
In a report released on Thursday, the WMO warned that the world would experience global temperatures over the next five years that would remain “at or near record levels” as climate change accelerates across land and sea.
A report produced by the UK Met Office stated that there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
It also found that there is a 91 per cent likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.
The 1.5°C mark is a key benchmark under the Paris Agreement on climate change, with scientists warning that exceeding it for prolonged periods will sharply increase the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity and displacement.
Such temporary breaches do not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate goals are unattainable, since the accord refers to warming sustained over decades rather than individual years.
Still, the forecasts underscore the accelerating pace of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme heat events.
Annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the average for the period 1850–1900.
The report also stated that there is a 75 per cent chance that the average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author, said.
According to him, the Arctic will continue warming far faster than the rest of the planet.
Temperatures across the region during the next five northern hemisphere winters are forecast to average 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline — more than three-and-a-half times the projected global average increase over the same period.
Scientists also predicted continued declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.
Sea ice loss matters because it accelerates warming by reducing the Arctic’s ability to reflect sunlight, while also disrupting ecosystems, weather patterns and livelihoods in polar regions.
The report pointed to widening shifts in global rainfall patterns consistent with a warming climate.
Higher-than-average rainfall is expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia between 2026 and 2030, while drier conditions are forecast for the Amazon region and parts of the subtropics.
Wetter conditions are also likely at higher northern latitudes during the upcoming winter seasons.
The forecasts are intended to help governments, regional climate centres and national weather agencies plan for risks that are no longer distant projections, but are increasingly becoming part of the world’s near-term climate outlook.
