The coup in Gabon this week is most unlikely to be a regime change. Gen Brice Nguema, the head of the junta is a relation of the Bongo family and started his career as body guard to Omar Bongo, the father of the deposed President who had ruled for 42 years. The coup occurred minutes after President Ali Bongo had been declared winner of a rigged election. He had been incapacitated since he suffered from a stroke in 2019 and the optics of a president without the capacity to govern has been an issue since his stroke. The symbolism of someone who is incapable of exercising power rigging election after election posed the question of how much longer can the charade last. When there was an attempted coup in January 2019, the army responded immediately rounding up the culprits. As everyone knows, Gabon is too precious for France to allow regime change. In the coming days, it will become clearer who allowed this coup to succeed.
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Is ECOWAS ready to go to war with our closest ally (Niger Republic) to protect “democracy”? Is ECOWAS prepared to face the armed forces of Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger Republic backed and trained by Russia’s Wagner? The military governments in Mali and Burkina Faso warned of an armed intervention in Niger and will counter with force. Guinea also sided with the putschist leaders. Can we ignore the angle of widespread arms in the region in the hands of miscreants, which the war will promote? We know that in many parts of West Africa, armed groups are swarming like ants on sugar, pulled by a mixture of weak states, bleak economic prospects, burgeoning populations, a punishing climate, and bad and irresponsible governance. Can we worsen the situation by igniting a disastrous war in the region? After Niger, Nigeria may be the primary target for destruction, and then Ghana and other countries. No, it is not worth maintaining the kind of liberal democracy we have in place. Based on living conditions, social amenities, and corruption, some people cannot distinguish between liberal democracy and military dictatorship. The lack of difference between the two types of governance is why ECOWAS is losing the support of its citizenry to take military action against the Junta in Niger. Nigerians unite against military action in Niger due to its tremendous regional catastrophe. Despite the ECOWAS resolution backed by the AU and the UN, many Nigerians oppose military intervention in the neighboring country. The Islamic clerics who met with Mr. Tinubu, last week volunteered to mediate in the crisis due to their opposition to war and the close ethnic and religious ties between Nigeria and Niger.
At about 1 am, on the cold night of Friday, August 2, 2019, exactly two months after celebrating his 34th birthday, Malam Abubakar Idris, commonly known as Abu Hanifa Dadiyata, or just Dadiyata, was abducted in front of his house at Barnawa, a quiescent area of Kaduna.
This week, the controversial Wagner Group leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, died when his plane was blown off the sky. He was a man of many talents said the Russian President, Putin, his friend/enemy. Indeed, one of his greatest talents is developing elaborate and sophisticated ways of weaponizing the genuine and deep history of Francafrique terrible maintenance of its colonial grip on the governments and resources of Francophone Africa for its interest while pretending to propose liberation. The purpose has been to introduce in its stead Russian neo-colonial control of the said territories through the instrumentality of installing military dictatorships. His method has been through deliberate and sustained manipulation through the social media.
I must continue to beat the drum of peace as heinous fire is threatening my neighborhood, Niger republic. The Nigeria-Niger border has seven states – Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno covering a distance of 1,608 km. Firing one shot in Niger will massively inject colossal wave of refugees into these states and escalate gigantic fire arms and ammunitions in the hands of non-state actors for nefarious activities. Is the restoration of President Mohamed Bazoum to power worth igniting the calamitous action of war in the West African Sub-region? Whose interest is ECOWAS trying to protect?
We have looked at various forms of government in the first part of this treatise. We ended with the posers, “Can we continue this way? Is it the fault of the system or the operators of the system? Should we scout for a better system or better operators? Should we look inwards? Will a system in tandem with our inner being be the answer to our multifaceted and ever-growing problems as a nation?” We signed off with this thought: “Perhaps we have been imposing on ourselves systems that are alien to us, to our culture, to our souls.”
This week, the innocent sounding term: “All Eyes on the Judiciary” appears to seriously irritate the Tinubu Government, I wonder why? The anger is seen in the decision of the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON) to remove “All Eyes on the judiciary” billboards sponsored by a group known as the Diaspora’s for Good Governance. The hashtag is an excellent description of the state of mind of ALL Nigerians wondering, fearing, hopeful, frightened of the expected verdict of the judiciary on election cases currently in the tribunals. The main focus is on the presidential election tribunal which will soon deliver its verdict on the petitions challenging the victory of President Bola Tinubu in the general election. Is someone afraid?
Coup d’état is a bad omen to any country, no matter the situation. It means the destiny of a nation and its people is placed squarely in the hands of regimented armed personalities who more often than not, suspend the nation’s constitution and severe the democratic structure with alacrity. They do and undo, make and unmake as they please without qualms. To hell with everybody, the leader of the coup is a kind of “supreme being” who barks orders with the maxim of “obey before complain”. Just like armed robbers, before the coup plotters get involved, they must stake all they have including their lives, and be ready to pay the supreme price in case of failure.
Since man became aware of himself and realised that whether by mutual arrangement or contrived by nature, there are always leaders and followers, communities fashioned out ways and means in which to live together under organised systems to regulate and conduct their affairs.
The ECOWAS emergency summit yesterday started well. Chairman Bola Tinubu in his opening remarks called for a focus on the use of diplomatic channels and negotiations. As I was writing this column to commend the new approach, news broke out that ECOWAS, has ordered its standby force to restore constitutional order in Niger Republic. The President of ECOWAS, Omar Alieu Touray made the declaration while reading the resolutions of the meeting. He also called on the African Union, partner countries and institutions to support the resolution taken by the sub-regional body. ECOWAS said all efforts made to dialogue with Niger Republic military junta have been defiantly rejected by coup leaders as they condemn continuous detention of President Mohamed Bazoum and his family members. They then directed the committee of the Chiefs of Defence Staff to activate the ECOWAS stand-by force with all its elements immediately to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger. The path taken is that of escalation.