Food prices in Nigeria have remained persistently high despite government interventions and food imports valued at N7.65 trillion in 2025, raising concerns about the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at easing cost pressures on households.
A widening gap persists between fiscal interventions and actual market outcomes, as increased spending on palliatives and imports has yet to translate into meaningful improvements in food affordability nationwide.
Data show that rising import bills and government interventions have not significantly reduced food prices, with inflation still elevated across key consumer categories.
The Federal Government spent N9.74 billion on food palliatives in 2024, according to data from BudgIT’s GovSpend platform, a civic-tech organisation promoting transparency and accountability.
This followed a 2023 intervention in which N5 billion was allocated to each of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) for rice and fertiliser procurement, amounting to N185 billion for the distribution of 100,000 bags of rice and other grains as palliatives.
Nigeria’s food import bill has also risen sharply, hitting about $10 billion in 2023, including $3 billion spent on grains. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that food and beverage imports increased from N3.83 trillion in 2023 to N6.58 trillion in 2024, and further to N7.65 trillion in 2025.
In 2024, the Federal Government introduced a zero-duty levy on selected food imports to ease soaring prices. While the policy helped moderate food inflation from 40.8 per cent in June 2024 to 8.89 per cent in January 2025, stakeholders say it also resulted in losses for local farmers.
Food inflation stood at 14.31 per cent year-on-year in March 2026, contributing significantly to headline inflation of about 15.38 per cent, underscoring sustained pressure on food prices despite increased spending and import dependence.
Experts attribute the persistence of high food prices to structural inefficiencies in Nigeria’s food system rather than inadequate funding alone, citing production constraints, logistics bottlenecks, and macroeconomic pressures.
Agricultural economist, Dr Adebayo Oladipo, said weak supply chains and post-harvest losses continue to limit the impact of government spending.
“There is a tendency to equate higher spending with better outcomes, but in agriculture, that assumption often fails. If supply chains are inefficient, storage is poor, and farmers cannot scale production, additional funding will not automatically reduce prices,” he said.
He added that significant post-harvest losses continue to create artificial scarcity, even when production improves.
Development expert, Dr Zainab Usman, identified rising fuel costs as a key driver of food inflation through higher transportation and logistics expenses.
“The food system does not operate in isolation. Increased fuel prices raise transport costs, which are passed along the value chain—from farmgate to retail,” she said, noting that improving logistics efficiency could have a substantial impact on food prices.
Abuja-based economist, Ibrahim Yusuf, highlighted exchange rate pressures as another critical factor, noting that volatility has driven up the cost of imported food and agricultural inputs.
“Many inputs—fertiliser, machinery, seeds—are priced in foreign currency. This means both imported and locally produced food become more expensive at the same time,” he said.
A development specialist at the University of Abuja, Aminu Barko, warned against over-reliance on imports, describing it as a short-term fix that exposes the country to global price shocks and foreign exchange constraints.
Security challenges also continue to constrain output. According to Oladipo, insecurity in key food-producing regions limits farmers’ access to land and reduces production capacity, further tightening supply.
Climate variability is compounding the situation. Environmental economist, Hadiza Bello, noted that increasing incidents of floods and droughts are disrupting planting cycles and reducing yields, worsening food supply challenges.
For households, the impact has been severe, as food accounts for a significant share of consumer spending. Rising prices are forcing families to cut both the quantity and quality of food consumed, with long-term implications for health and productivity.
“What we are witnessing is not just inflation but a broader cost-of-living crisis,” Yusuf said, adding that even when inflation slows, prices typically continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace.
Experts agree that addressing the crisis will require structural reforms rather than continued short-term interventions.
Usman stressed the need for a coordinated strategy linking agriculture, infrastructure, energy, and trade policy, noting that isolated measures are unlikely to resolve systemic challenges.
Similarly, Oladipo called for a shift from reactive spending to strategic investment in mechanisation, rural infrastructure, storage, and security, warning that without these foundations, food price volatility will persist.
