By Abdallah el-Kurebe I August 18, 2025: The July 2025 edition of the AGRA Food Security Monitor (FSM) paints a mixed picture of Africa’s food systems, with West Africa seeing notable price declines, East Africa grappling with policy frictions and high hunger rates, while Southern Africa remains split between surplus-driven price relief and pockets of stress.
West Africa: Prices ease, but conflict weighs
Across key West African markets, staple food prices showed a downward trend. Nigeria’s maize dropped by 20 percent to USD 285 per metric ton, while Ghana and Togo also recorded declines. Rice prices were mixed—slightly up in Niger and Togo but falling by as much as nine percent in Ghana, Nigeria, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Millet and sorghum prices broadly fell, though local hotspots in Ghana and Niger saw spikes.
Despite these price improvements, food security remains fragile. About 118.4 million people in seven West African countries reported insufficient food consumption in July—an improvement from 162.7 million a year earlier. Nigeria showed major progress, but Ghana and Togo recorded worsening conditions. Conflict in Mali, Niger’s lean-season shortages, and insurgency in northern Nigeria continue to drive localized crises.
East Africa: Trade barriers and hunger pressures
In East Africa, maize prices surged to record levels in South Sudan at over USD 1,000 per metric ton, reflecting economic instability and supply bottlenecks. Kenya’s maize eased slightly but remains nearly 28 percent higher than last year. Rice prices are highest in Kenya at around USD 1,265 per metric ton.
Food insecurity remains acute, particularly in South Sudan, where pockets of famine-like conditions persist, compounded by child malnutrition and cholera outbreaks. Uganda also recorded high levels of hunger, with over 40 percent of the population experiencing insufficient food consumption.
Regional trade disputes deepened challenges. Uganda introduced a USD 10 levy on grain by-products, while South Sudan imposed heavy testing fees and re-certification requirements on imports. Kenya, meanwhile, announced duty-free importation of half a million metric tons of rice and introduced new wheat price floors and quotas.
Southern Africa: Surpluses and shortages
Southern Africa showed contrasting fortunes. Malawi’s maize rose 10 percent to USD 654 per metric ton due to tight supplies, while Zambia and Mozambique recorded sharp declines on the back of better harvests. Zimbabwe’s maize eased five percent but remains the region’s most expensive at USD 825 per metric ton.
Food security is improving in Zimbabwe, where maize output rebounded by 260 percent from 2024, easing pressure on households. In contrast, Malawi and Mozambique face mounting stress from weather shocks, depleted stocks, and urban food access challenges.
On trade, Malawi and Zambia signed Africa’s first Mutual Recognition Agreement to reduce redundant testing and speed up food trade, a move analysts say could cut costs and serve as a model for the region.
Global context
Globally, the International Grains Council reported a 3.2 percent year-on-year decline in its Grain and Oilseeds Index. Rice prices fell sharply by 32 percent year-on-year, while maize rose by nearly 13 percent. Fertilizer prices ticked up slightly, with urea and DAP showing strong year-on-year increases, adding pressure to African farmers ahead of planting seasons.
