Some of us who are die-hard “true believers” in the dream of a united, integrated, prosperous and democratic West Africa of the people met in Dakar, Senegal this week to reflect on what needs to be done to preserve the dream. The meeting was convened by Professor Abdoulaye Bathily, Dr. Abdoulie Janneh and Dr. Kayode Fayemi. The issue of concern is that later this month, on 29th January 2025, the statutory one-year notice period that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) required Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to observe when they announced their unilateral and immediate withdrawal from the organization and launched their own Association of Sahel States (AES) will expire.
The ECOWAS Charter requires one year before a notice of withdrawal of membership can become effective. However, while not being unaware of that requirement, the three AES countries stated categorically that they did not feel bound by it considering that “illegal” and “inhumane” sanctions had been imposed on them because of the military coups they had led. Those sanctions, they argued, were themselves “illegal” in terms of the ECOWAS Charter and the organizations founding principles, and any case, they were imposed regardless of the circumstances that brought about the military interventions and the dire security threats each of the affected countries were faced with from various insurgents and terrorists. Amidst ECOWAS’ insistence that all unconstitutional changes of government in West Africa will not be tolerated, and in the face of the threat particularly addressed to the coup makers who overthrew the Mohammed Bazoum administration in Niger that a regional military expedition might be undertaken to help restore the dethroned government to power, the AES countries proceeded to constitute themselves into a confederation with a mutual defence pact. In doing so, they stated that any attempt to attack Niger militarily would be considered an attack on all members of the new confederation and they would fight back. What began as an attempt to enforce what had become an accustomed ECOWAS collective response to unconstitutional changes of government, and for which the organization had previously won accolades as a robust defender of its charter on democracy and good governance, very quickly degenerated into a tempestuous stand-off between it and three of its members.
The “battle line” that was drawn between ECOWAS and the AES countries was complicated further when France, with its historic role of exploiter-in-chief in the Sahel, appeared to latch onto the ECOWAS criticism of the AES states, and even egg the former on for “drastic” and immediate action against the latter. For the AES countries, at a time when their military was actively seeking to consolidate themselves in power by tapping into a long-standing and growing groundswell of mass disaffection against French neo-colonialism, the offer of military support by Paris to ECOWAS countries for the threatened military expedition and the apparent moves that were made to that effect was the evidence they needed to stake an argument that ECOWAS had not only deviated from its ordinal mission and mandate but, worse, had become a tool in the hands of French imperialism. Not surprisingly, an almost complete breakdown in communication between ECOWAS and the AES countries followed.
The collapse of direct engagement between the ECOWAS and AES countries following the anger over the issues raised is today the main problem of forward movement. Having defined themselves as the West African flag bearers of a fight against centuries of French neo-colonialism and feeling themselves “besieged” by the sanctions that had been imposed on them by ECOWAS, sanctions which France and the wider European Union declared support for, the ground was ripe for the AES countries to fall into the embrace of Russia, especially for political cover and military support. China, Turkey, the UAE, and Qatar, to cite the most prominent, also found the terrain propitious for moving into the AES countries and staking their own strategic claims, especially to various natural resources and geopolitical assets is not allowed to be a new scramble for Africa. This is especially as the world is witnessing interesting times given the context of accelerating realignments in global geopolitics pushing West Africa gradually, but perhaps inexorably into a new Cold War between the big powers seeking new hegemonic advantages in world affairs.
In the months that have passed since the formation of the AES, there has been a significant softening of the ECOWAS stance towards the three countries, including the lifting of sanctions, the withdrawal of threats of collective military action in Niger, and direct conciliatory overtures made to them to rescind their notice of withdrawal from the organization. To further underscore the desire by ECOWAS to prevent the exit of the three countries, it was decided to designate the presidents of Senegal and Togo as joint mediators mandated to reach out to them and develop a rapprochement. However, the AES countries have remained adamant about maintaining their withdrawal from ECOWAS, insisting that their decision is irrevocable and continuing their anti-ECOWAS public pronouncements. They have also been taking various steps, some of them symbolic, to consolidate their alliance.
In the meantime, the security situation in the Sahel continues to be a source of immense concern. In the three AES countries, violence of various kinds, including those underwritten by radical extremists and separatists, continues to grow, causing massive losses in life and property. Swathes of territory are in the hands of the armed groups, including but not limited to the borderland communities. Indeed, in some of the territories that have been occupied, the armed groups are exacting taxation from the local populace, confiscating harvests, and/or setting up their own local administrative structures. A veritable humanitarian crisis has developed across the Sahel as hapless citizens, especially women and children, bear the brunt of the continuing violence. Within the most affected countries that are the epicentres of the crisis, everyday governance has effectively been reduced to a game of survival designed to stave off a wholesale collapse. In the less directly affected countries, a major pre-occupation
is how to ensure that contagion and spillover are either prevented or rolled back. Overall, there is no doubt that the regional cooperation and integration agenda has been severely compromised. There is equally no doubt that a comprehensive reset is called for. Although the challenges facing West Africa as a region and ECOWAS as an organization are serious, there can be no question of surrendering the gains in cooperation and integration that have been achieved over the period since 1975.
Both the AES states and the rest of ECOWAS would be losers if the divorce is consummated in two week’s time. The mutilated ECOWAS that would emerge would be without over 50%nof its territory and the three AES states would be cut off from their main social and economic partners – Nigeria and Benin for Niger, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire for Burkina Faso and Senegal for Mali. Both sides need to set emotions aside and stop the march towards an outcome they will surely regret. The last ECOWAS Summit has provided a six-month additional window – up till 29th July 2025, during which the AES countries could walk back from the divorce without consequences. That opportunity should be taken and the mediators can continue their work to mend the face-up. The larger West African society has a stake in unity as well so civil society, religious and traditional leaders, women and youth groups should all mobilise to keep the region united.
On 28th May 2025, ECOWAS will be celebrating its 50th anniversary. It should be a time for consolidation, not disintegration. My view is that both sides could ride on the current positive bandwagon of throwing out French neo-colonialism to forge a new unity. France has been an active player over the decades blocking the emergence of ECO, the common West Africa currency. This is the moment to all come together and make real the new proposed date of the establishment of ECO in 2027. This requires a strong political will that could set aside the technicist economic convergence principles that have been used to block the process over the years. Maybe the most compelling argument for conserving ECOWAS is our collective security against the forces of terrorism that are strengthening. The division will certainly threaten our collective security by opening our doors wider to terrorism making both sides more vulnerable and less secure. Our dream for a prosperous, integrated and democratic West Africa must not die.
