You see, the distribution of political offices in Nigeria is, unfortunately, often determined along ethnic, religious, and regional lines. The proponents of this zoning or rotational distribution of positions against a pure democratic freedom of contest and choice say it is what is best for a diverse Nigeria, including Niger state. I, for one, do not like it for obvious reasons of exclusivity, which marks out 95% of Nigerians from valuable contributions towards the entrenchment of viable leadership across the country.
Nupe, Gbagyi, and Hausa dominate the Niger State political episodes. Hausa has strategically been a foxy player that draws lines against Nupes and Gbagyis, in the political/leadership dispensation of the state, until Bago/313 arrived to deconstruct the order.
Let’s look at how terrible zoning, allocation, and rotation could be before returning to the tragedy that might befall the Gbagyis in 2027. It is likely not to succeed, but to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
There are four ways in which youths or ordinary citizens can not acquire democratic power in Nigeria. And, it is all about the strategic planning of the Nigerian political elites:
- Politics is a monitised enterprise. You must first procure forms in millions of Naira, some, to the tune of 25m, 50m and 100m. Where will the youths or a good, poor citizen get this money to buy the form and contest?
- Delegate system. This limits popular participation. This stage is purely another round of cash and carry to get elected as an aspirant for a party. Delegates are seldom elected; they are selected. How can ordinary people navigate this big hurdle?
- Zoning or rotation among regions, zones and ethnicities. This is where the youths are clearly marked out in higher offices. Only a few people sit in zone positions in a party where offices are shared among stakeholders, moneybags, and senior citizens in the country, state or LG. Here too, the highest financier of the party takes the juicest portion. So, youths and many ethnic groups are perpetual losers in the sharing spree.
- Political party structure. High politicians jostle to control party structures not for justice and fairplay but for taking advantages to win elections. Only a few are people-oriented. The group that controls the party structures controls the advantages, and by extension, the government, and all the good things that come with being in power in Nigeria.
Therefore, any group that finds itself in an advantaged position should hold on to it with strategic eyes, wisdom and a watchful mind to be able to retain the advantage or magic wand, especially if the advantage brings about spread in development for the zone.
Now, the Gbagyis and the Nupes are fully in control of the state due largely to the adventures of Bago and Sani 313, which subsequently admitted Yakubu Garba to solidify a tight political partnership. Both Bago and 313 are dogged characters and independent-minded individuals. Gladly, the partnership is domiciled in Minna, the political capital of Niger State. This is the strong house that is about to collapse. This is the house that must collapse, the wish of many prospective power opponents of the current dispensation.
The house must collapse to neutralise the new power bloc with immense electoral value in the state, should the Governorship slot move to Zone B in 2031, for which the Gbagyis would vociferously demand that one of them be elected as the Governor. Should Bago/313/Yakubu alliance subsist till that time, the ace is for the Gbagyis. See the formula, nah: Nupe/Gbagyi/Gbagyi = Gbagyi Governor, in 2031. But if a discord is sown in it and dragged to 2031, the Gbagyis become powerless to get the slot. A repeat of the circumstances that brought in Talba, when the Gbagyis could not unite to field a consensus candidate, must be avoided. It is not unthinkable for politicians to bring in a smaller ethnic group in 2031, if the Gbagyis continue to inflame or allow people to help fan the smouldering fire being set at the moment. Of course, there are Hausas, Koros, and Kamukus in Zone B, who can be Governors as well. So, it makes sense for the unseen anti-Gbagyi forces to neutralise 313, who is the most powerful Gbagyi politician as of today. And, predictably, the recruit to oppose him effectively should be the Gbagyis themselves. Whoever is responsible for this design, only God knows. However, history repeats itself because man hardly changes.
Have you seen the lineup for the 2027 Chanchaga House of Reps? How many Gbagyis are in there? How many of them will win it? That slot has already gone beyond the Gbagyis. So, hold on to your 313 and enjoy your current superiority in power distribution, partnerships, opportunities in development, and ace.
I owe you this piece of advice as one who has benefited from the Gbagyis. Thank you, 313, thank you, Bala Abdullahi Kwatu, thank you, Yakubu Garba, thank you, Makama, for all the decent friendships, thank you to all my Gbagyi associates from childhood.
