As many as 16.99 million Nigerians may require urgent food assistance by January 2027, according to projections by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
The latest projection comes amid broader concerns over food insecurity in Nigeria. Previous projections by PwC and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) had estimated that up to 34.7 million Nigerians could experience acute or severe food insecurity during 2026, particularly during the lean season.
FEWS NET projection is contained in the organisation’s July 2026 Food Assistance Outlook Brief, which estimates that between 16 million and 16.99 million Nigerians could face acute food insecurity by January next year.
Although the projected figure represents an improvement from the estimated 20 million to 20.99 million Nigerians expected to require urgent food assistance in July 2026, it remains higher than the figure recorded in January 2026 and Nigeria’s five-year average.
FEWS NET ranked Nigeria fourth among countries globally with the highest projected number of people likely to require urgent food assistance by January 2027, behind Sudan, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The organisation attributed the projected decline in the number of Nigerians requiring food assistance partly to the expected December harvest, but warned that food insecurity would remain severe in several parts of the country.
According to the report, conflict in northern Nigeria is expected to continue driving Crisis-level food insecurity and worse outcomes in January 2027.
It said ongoing insecurity is disrupting livelihoods, restricting farming activities and reducing household incomes, while high prices of staple foods are expected to persist.
FEWS NET further warned that inaccessible areas and Local Government Areas in the North-East affected by conflict-related movement restrictions are likely to continue experiencing Emergency conditions.
It noted that households affected by conflict and unable to cultivate their farms would remain heavily dependent on markets for food, while production and supply disruptions could keep food prices elevated even after the main harvest in December.
“Despite the completion of the main harvest in December, staple food prices are expected to remain high as production and supply disruptions coincide with high market reliance among conflict-affected households who are unable to cultivate,” the organisation said.
Globally, FEWS NET projected that between 145 million and 155 million people across the 30 countries it monitors would require urgent food assistance by January 2027.
It identified South Sudan as having the highest projected share of its population requiring food assistance, followed by Sudan, Yemen and Somalia.
FEWS NET also listed Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Mali and Chad as countries at risk of slipping into full-blown famine.
The network’s population-in-need estimates include people already experiencing Crisis-level hunger or worse, classified as Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3 and above, as well as those who could fall into that category without continued humanitarian assistance.
