As Nigeria grapples with persistent food inflation and the uncertainties of climate change, dry season agriculture has become a cornerstone of the government’s strategy to achieve food security.
Federal programs like the National Agricultural Growth Scheme – Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP), alongside state-level efforts, promise year-round farming, increased yields of staples such as wheat, rice, and vegetables, and economic relief for millions of rural households.
The concept is straightforward: deliver subsidized seeds, fertilizers, irrigation equipment, and extension services to enable cultivation during the dry months (November to April). When executed well, it boosts production, stabilizes supply, reduces imports, and improves farmer incomes through off-season price premiums.
Yet the reality on the ground reveals a stark contrast – where political visibility and influence often outpace tangible benefits for smallholders. Flag-off ceremonies generate headlines and goodwill, but delays in funding and inputs frequently leave farmers empty-handed.
Flag-off politics and fertile publicity
High-profile launches underscore this tension. Senator Anthony Siyako Yaro, representing Gombe South, launched an empowerment initiative for 400 youths and women in dry season farming.
Inputs were provided, support pledged, and the event drew media attention as a model of constituency service. Supporters hail it as proactive leadership bridging bureaucratic gaps; critics view it as classic pre-election constituency project designed to foster loyalty and name recognition.
Nationally, Minister of Agriculture and Food Security Senator Abubakar Kyari has been central to these efforts. As a former acting APC National Chairman and key architect of agricultural policy under President Tinubu, he has flagged off multiple dry season programs.
In November 2025, he launched the 2025/2026 wheat initiative in Borno State’s Jere LGA, targeting 40,000 hectares nationwide, 80,000 registered farmers, and an expected output value of approximately ₦160 billion. Borno alone received 3,000 hectares and 6,000 farmers.
Such events project decisive action against food inflation and import dependence, with Kyari emphasizing quality inputs, extension support, and standards enforcement.
For many farmers, however, ceremonies offer little solace. Dry season success hinges on precise timing – irrigation pumps need fuel, seeds and fertilizers must arrive early, and planting windows are narrow. Delays translate to missed seasons and lost revenue.
The cost of delay
Recent developments highlight systemic bottlenecks. The House of Representatives launched a probe in February 2026 into the non-release of ₦174.26 billion in agricultural intervention funds, including those from partners like the African Development Bank (AfDB) and JICA under NAGS-AP and related programs.
Lawmakers warn that these time-sensitive funds, critical for the 2025/2026 dry season and beyond, risk undermining food security amid high fertilizer costs and production shortfalls.
Smallholders report soaring diesel prices for pumps, inconsistent extension services, and subsidy distributions skewed toward those with stronger networks.
While some in Kano profit handsomely from vegetable sales during scarcity periods, many others face water shortages or fail to access promised support.
Farmers at the frontline
Ordinary growers embody the gap between promise and delivery. In Katsina, Mustapha Lawal has pursued dry season farming for over a decade, yet persistent issues, insufficient water and input shortages, persist despite repeated interventions.
His experience reflects broader frustrations: policy announcements rarely match on-farm realities.
In Kano, Mustapha Adamu heads a water users’ association that has gained from the World Bank-backed Transforming Irrigation Management in Nigeria (TRIMING) project.
TRIMING has expanded irrigated areas, introduced efficient systems, and lifted productivity in targeted clusters. These successes prove structured investment works – but they remain exceptions, dependent on reliable funding and transparent governance.
Across the country, farmers question beneficiary selection, input arrival, and fund flows. Who gets prioritized? Why do lists sometimes favor connected individuals?
Access and advantage
Dry season farming holds real potential: high-value vegetables command premium prices, wheat and rice cut import bills, and irrigation mitigates erratic rains. Yet success often correlates with access – to functional pumps, timely subsidies, extension advice, or political patrons.
Those without such links bear higher risks, relying on savings or loans while subsidies intended to level the field fall short.
This disparity fuels perceptions that smallholders shoulder the labor and uncertainty, while political figures harvest visibility, credit for “empowerment,” and influence over multi-billion-naira programs.
Promise vs power
Nigeria’s dry season push is not flawed in design. Experts affirm that scaled irrigation, prompt inputs, and better water management could slash inflation, curb poverty, and build resilience, as seen in irrigated Kano zones and TRIMING outcomes.
Credibility, however, rests on execution: transparent disbursements, timely releases, and equitable access. Each delayed fund erodes trust; each ceremonial flag-off heightens expectations without guaranteed follow-through.
As the House probe continues and farmers decide whether to invest amid rising costs, dry season agriculture remains a paradox – a viable path to abundance for those who secure support, yet a potent stage for political projection in Nigeria’s evolving agricultural story.
When the harvest arrives, the enduring question lingers: who truly reaps the rewards?
