A major farming crisis has hit communities in Asa Local Government Area of Kwara State after the Nigerian Meteorological Agency’s (NiMet) 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction failed. Thousands of farmers had relied on the forecast to decide when to plant, but the reality turned out very different.
Kwara Must Change (KMC), a civic advocacy group, described the forecast as “a huge failure” with serious consequences for food security, farmer confidence, and rural livelihoods.
NiMet’s 2025 prediction said rains in Asa would start on May 7 and end on November 18, giving nearly 195 days of rainfall. But instead, after early showers in May, the rain stopped in June, vanished completely in July, and returned only twice in August.
Steady rainfall resumed in September, leaving farmers with a three-month drought during the peak growing season. The unusual pattern destroyed crops, wiping out investments in land preparation, seedlings, and fertilisers. Many farmers now call it “the worst season in living memory.”
KMC, which tracks governance and development in Kwara, expressed shock at the scale of the damage, accusing NiMet of failing the very farmers it was meant to guide.
Its Convener, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, said the failure went beyond a scientific mistake and showed policy negligence.
“NiMet’s failure to capture the three-month drought between June and August is not just a technical error but a national disaster. Farming is Kwara’s lifeline, and when institutions fail at this level, the impact is massive,” Hamzat said.
The group demanded urgent answers from NiMet and the Federal Government, stressing that farmers deserve accountability and corrective measures to prevent a repeat.
KMC also urged the Kwara State Government to provide immediate relief packages for affected farmers, warning that delays could lead to food shortages and deepen poverty.
It further called for the creation of localized weather monitoring systems across Kwara to support national forecasts. Grassroots data, it argued, could make predictions more reliable and restore farmers’ trust.
“This is a wake-up call. If national forecasts continue to fail, farmers will either ignore them or abandon farming altogether. Both outcomes are dangerous for our economy and food security,” KMC warned.
As farmers in Kwara struggle to recover, agricultural experts are also questioning whether Nigeria’s climate forecasting system can keep up with the fast-changing realities of climate change, especially in communities that depend on rainfall for farming.
