The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, is likely to hover around ₦905 per litre within the 2026 fiscal year.
The projection is contained in the apex bank’s Macroeconomic Outlook, which outlines key assumptions guiding Nigeria’s economic performance over the medium term, including crude oil prices, foreign exchange stability and domestic production levels.
According to the CBN, global crude oil prices are expected to moderate, with Brent crude projected to average about $60 per barrel towards the end of 2025 and decline further to around $55 per barrel in 2026. These price expectations, alongside Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum market, are expected to influence domestic fuel pricing.
The bank also anticipates relative stability in the foreign exchange market, projecting the naira to trade around ₦1,400 to the dollar in 2026. This outlook is premised on improved capital inflows, increased crude oil production, a stronger current account position and enhanced investor confidence.
In terms of output, the CBN assumes Nigeria’s crude oil production will average about 1.5 million barrels per day, supported by ongoing efforts to curb oil theft and pipeline vandalism, as well as gradual improvements in the operating environment of the oil and gas sector.
Under these conditions, the apex bank expects petrol prices to stabilise around the projected level, reflecting market-based pricing dynamics following the removal of fuel subsidy.
The CBN noted that broader macroeconomic stability, improved foreign exchange liquidity and sustained reforms in the energy sector will remain critical to managing price volatility and supporting economic growth.
