The Director-General of the Association of Enterprise Risk Management Professionals (AERMP), Olayinka Odutola, says President Bola Tinubu’s assent to the 2026 Appropriation Bill reflects an expansionary fiscal stance but raises sustainability concerns.
Odutola told reporters on Sunday in Lagos that the N68.32 trillion budget underscores inflation-driven expansion, rising debt service obligations, and the government’s intent to stimulate growth through spending.
He noted that while the scale could boost economic activity, it also increases fiscal pressure amid Nigeria’s constrained revenue base.
“From a risk perspective, fiscal sustainability is the key concern. If revenue mobilisation, especially non-oil revenue, does not keep pace, the deficit will widen and borrowing will increase,” he said.
According to him, this creates a compounding loop of rising debt and debt servicing costs, which could further limit fiscal space for development spending.
Odutola highlighted that the extension of the 2025 budget implementation to June 30, 2026, introduces a budget overlap risk with implications for accountability and project tracking.
He warned that the overlap could blur performance measurement across fiscal cycles and distort capital project execution efficiency.
“It also reflects a pragmatic move to improve capital expenditure absorption, which has historically been constrained by procurement delays, funding gaps, and institutional bottlenecks,” he added.
The AERMP chief identified revenue resilience, expenditure discipline, and execution efficiency as critical priorities for policymakers.
He stressed the need to strengthen tax administration and diversify revenue sources, noting recent reforms in tax legislation as positive steps.
On expenditure, Odutola urged all levels of government to reduce leakages and wastages to ensure spending translates into measurable economic outcomes.
He further emphasized the importance of tightening project governance frameworks to enhance implementation efficiency and value for money.
Odutola described the budget approval as more than a fiscal milestone, calling it a “risk signal” that underscores the importance of sustainable funding and effective deployment.
“The size of the budget is less important than the government’s ability to fund it sustainably and implement it efficiently,” he said.
He added that the extension of the 2025 budget could yield positive outcomes if properly managed, particularly in improving capital project delivery.
Odutola concluded that the government’s response to the identified risks will determine the extent of progress in managing the nation’s resources.
