The recent military coup in Niger Republic has sent shockwaves across West Africa and the world. On July 26, 2023, the Commander of the Presidential Guard in Niger, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, who had been elected in February 2021 in a historic democratic transition. Tchiani declared himself the new leader of the country and dissolved all the institutions of the state.
The coup has been widely condemned by the international community, especially by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU), which have suspended Niger’s membership and demanded the immediate restoration of constitutional order. Nigeria’s President His Excellency, the President of the FRN, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, (will further herein be referred to as Tinubu, for ease) who is also the current chairperson of ECOWAS, has taken a leading role in trying to resolve the crisis diplomatically. He has sent a delegation consisting of former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar (rtd), and Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammad Saad Abubakar, a retired Brigadier-General, to meet with the coup leaders and the ousted government in Niger.
However, Tinubu has also threatened to use military force if the coup leaders do not comply with the ultimatum given by ECOWAS. He has said that he is ready to deploy a regional intervention force, similar to the ECOMOG that was used in Liberia and Sierra Leone in the 1990s, to invade Niger and reinstate Bazoum. Tinubu has claimed that he has the support of other West African leaders and some western countries, such as France and the US, which have a significant military presence and influence in Niger and the Sahel region.
But is this a wise and feasible option? What are the implications of such a move for Nigeria and the region? In this article, I will try to answer these questions by analyzing some of the possible effects of the coup and Tinubu’s response on four key aspects: migration, security, democracy, and regional influence.
Migration
One of the immediate consequences of the coup in Niger could be an increase in migration flows towards Nigeria and other neighboring countries. Niger is already one of the poorest and most vulnerable countries in the world, with a population of 27 million people, most of whom live below the poverty line. The coup could worsen the humanitarian situation in Niger, as it could create uncertainty, instability, and potential violence. This could force many people to flee their homes and seek safety elsewhere.
Nigeria is already hosting about 200,000 refugees from Niger, mainly from the Diffa region, which has been affected by the insurgency of Boko Haram and other armed groups. The coup could add more pressure on Nigeria’s already strained resources and infrastructure, as it could receive more refugees from other parts of Niger. This could create humanitarian and security challenges for Nigeria, as it could have to deal with issues such as food insecurity, health risks, social tensions, and human trafficking.
Security
Another major consequence of the coup in Niger could be a spill over of violence into Nigeria and other neighbouring countries. Niger shares borders with seven countries: Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Libya, Algeria, Benin, and Nigeria. Some of these countries are already facing their own security crises, such as terrorism, insurgency, banditry, and civil unrest. The coup in Niger could exacerbate these crises, as it could create a power vacuum that could be exploited by armed groups or trigger a regional conflict among different actors.
Nigeria is particularly vulnerable to this scenario, as it shares a 1,608-kilometer-long border with five regions in Niger: Diffa, Maradi, Tahoua, Tillaberi, And Zinder. These regions are home to various ethnic groups, such as Hausa, Fulani, Tuareg, And Kanuri, Some of whom have cross-border ties with their counterparts in Nigeria.
The coup in Niger could inflame ethnic tensions or spark violence among these groups,
Especially if they perceive that their interests or identities are threatened by the coup or its aftermath.
The coup could also embolden or attract Islamist militants, such as Boko Haram,
ISWAP, AQIM, and JNIM, who have been operating in Niger and other parts of the Sahel.
These groups could take advantage of the chaos or instability in Niger to launch attacks on Nigeria or other neighboring countries, or to recruit more fighters or sympathizers from among the disgruntled or marginalized populations.
Democracy
A third consequence of the coup in Niger could be a setback for democracy in Niger and the region. Niger had made commendable progress towards consolidating its democratic principles, exemplified by peaceful transfers of power in 2011 and 2021. The military takeover undermines this progress and sends a worrisome message to other nations in the region that democracy is fragile and vulnerable to coups. This could erode the trust and confidence of the people in democratic institutions and processes, and encourage anti-democratic elements to challenge or subvert the rule of law.
Nigeria, as the largest democracy and economy in Africa, has a responsibility and an interest in promoting and protecting democracy in the region. Nigeria has been a champion of democracy in West Africa, as it has played a key role in resolving previous political crises in countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Gambia, and Guinea. Nigeria has also been a model of democracy for other African countries, as it has successfully conducted several elections and transitions since its return to civilian rule in 1999. The coup in Niger could pose a threat to Nigeria’s democratic credentials and leadership, especially if His Excellency, the President of the FRN, Bola Ahmed Tinubu decides to use military force to intervene in Niger. This could be seen as a violation of Niger’s sovereignty and an interference in its internal affairs. It could also backfire or escalate the situation, as it could provoke resistance or retaliation from the coup leaders or their allies.
Regional Influence
A fourth consequence of the coup in Niger could be a loss of regional influence for Niger and Nigeria. Niger had played an important role in regional cooperation and integration, as a member of ECOWAS and AU. It had also been a reliable partner for western countries, especially France and the US, in the fight against Islamist militants in the Sahel. The coup has led to Niger’s suspension from both ECOWAS and AU, as well as a halt in aid and assistance from some western countries. This could reduce Niger’s ability to participate in regional decision-making and access crucial financial and technical support. It could also affect its relations with other global powers, such as Russia and China, who have increased their economic and political ties with Niger.
Nigeria, as the most populous and powerful country in West Africa, has a significant influence on the region’s affairs. Nigeria has been a leader of ECOWAS and a major contributor to its peacekeeping and security operations. Nigeria has also been a strategic partner for many western countries, especially the US, in addressing regional and global challenges, such as terrorism, trade, climate change, and health. The coup in Niger could affect Nigeria’s influence on the region, especially if Tinubu fails to resolve the crisis diplomatically or militarily. This could damage Tinubu’s reputation and credibility as a regional leader and mediator. It could also weaken Nigeria’s position and leverage in dealing with other international actors, such as France, Russia, China, who may have different or competing interests or agendas in the region.
Conclusion
The coup in Niger Republic is a serious and complex issue that requires careful and cautious handling by Nigeria and other regional and international stakeholders. The coup has implications for Nigeria and the region on various aspects, such as migration, security, democracy, and regional influence. Tinubu’s response to the coup should be guided by these implications, as well as by the principles of dialogue, respect, solidarity, and cooperation. Military force should be avoided or used as a last resort, as it could have negative or unintended consequences for Niger and its neighbors. Diplomacy and dialogue should be preferred or pursued, as they could offer more sustainable and inclusive solutions for Niger and its people.
Abiodun is a notary public
