The Federal Government plans to offer N5.4 trillion in Treasury bills in the fourth quarter of 2026, with nearly 76% allocated to one-year securities as it focuses on debt refinancing obligations.
The Federal Government is targeting N5.40 trillion in Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) between October and December 2026, with N4.10 trillion earmarked for 364-day instruments, according to the latest issuance calendar released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Debt Management Office (DMO).
The plan allocates N650 billion each to 91-day and 182-day bills, while the 364-day tenor accounts for 75.93% of the proposed issuance. The structure underscores the government’s continued reliance on one-year securities to refinance existing debt.
Data from the fourth-quarter issuance programme show that the planned N5.40 trillion offer is slightly below the N5.429 trillion in Treasury bills scheduled to mature within the period. If fully allotted, the programme would result in a net reduction of about N29.27 billion in outstanding Treasury bills.
However, actual borrowing will depend on the amounts allotted at the auctions, which may differ from the advertised offers.
October takes largest share of planned issuance
The issuance programme is weighted towards October, when the government plans to offer N2.15 trillion against N1.31 trillion in maturing bills. This represents a potential excess of N839.91 billion over maturities, assuming full allotment.
The position changes in the following months, with planned offers falling below maturing obligations.
In November, the government plans to offer N1.60 trillion against N1.919 trillion in maturities, leaving a shortfall of N318.60 billion. December’s planned N1.65 trillion offer will also fall below the N2.201 trillion scheduled to mature, producing a difference of N550.58 billion.
The largest single maturity in the quarter is N1.108 trillion scheduled for November 18, while substantial repayments are also due on December 2, 9 and 16.
The maturity profile suggests that investors receiving repayments in November and December may have fewer scheduled Treasury bill offers available for reinvestment during those months.
One-year bills attract strong investor demand
The government’s preference for longer-dated Treasury bills comes amid strong demand for the 364-day instrument.
At the first Treasury bill auction of the fourth quarter on October 7, the DMO, acting through the CBN, allotted N968.47 billion against an advertised offer of N900 billion.
The stop rate on the one-year bill declined to 15.85%, from 15.89% at the preceding auction, indicating a further easing in the yield investors accepted on the instrument.
The strong demand for the 364-day bill contrasts with the weaker subscriptions recorded for shorter-tenor instruments, reinforcing its dominant position in the government’s borrowing programme.
At the October 14 auction, the CBN offered another N450 billion in Treasury bills, comprising N50 billion each for the 91-day and 182-day instruments and N350 billion for the 364-day bill.
Borrowing target falls from Q3
The N5.40 trillion fourth-quarter programme is N400 billion below the N5.80 trillion targeted for the third quarter of 2026.
However, the two quarters have different maturity profiles. Treasury bills worth approximately N5.429 trillion are due for repayment in Q4, compared with about N2.64 trillion in Q3.
Consequently, the third-quarter programme implied potential net new issuance of about N3.16 trillion, while the current quarter’s calendar points to a broadly balanced refinancing programme.
The proposed reduction in net Treasury bill issuance does not, however, establish the Federal Government’s overall borrowing position. Its total financing requirements also depend on other instruments, including Federal Government of Nigeria bonds, and the actual amounts raised through auctions.
The fourth-quarter calendar therefore signals a continued emphasis on refinancing existing short-term obligations, with one-year Treasury bills accounting for the bulk of planned offers. The final impact on government borrowing and market liquidity will depend on investor demand, auction allotments and the settlement of maturing securities.
