A new Maritime Forecast to 2050 published by DNV warns that the global shipping industry is entering a “new regulatory era” that will fundamentally reshape investment, fuel choices, and operational strategies.
The report, released shortly after the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted its Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in April 2025, highlights that shipowners and operators worldwide must prepare for sweeping emissions regulations that will define the sector’s transition to low-carbon operations.
Key findings
IMO’s Net-Zero Framework
The NZF introduces global greenhouse gas (GHG) fuel intensity rules and emissions pricing, building on regional measures such as the EU Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime. If ratified at the IMO’s October 2025 session, the regime will accelerate investment in alternative fuels, onboard carbon capture, and energy-efficiency technologies.
Fuel Transition Nears a Tipping Point
DNV projects that by 2030 the global fleet’s capacity to consume low-GHG fuels will surpass 50 million tonnes of oil equivalent. Yet, fuel supply is expected to lag behind, with global production of such fuels projected at 70 to 100 million tonnes annually — of which shipping will secure only a share. The report points to three persistent barriers: technology and safety risks, high costs, and limited fuel availability.
Carbon capture and wind propulsion on the rise
Onboard carbon capture (OCC) could reduce emissions from bulkers, tankers, and container ships by up to 19%, provided port infrastructure for CO₂ offloading keeps pace. By 2030, global CO₂ storage capacity could reach 60 to 85 million tonnes. Meanwhile, wind-assisted propulsion systems are already delivering 5% to 20% fuel savings in real-world use, with up to 30% reductions possible under favorable conditions.
Industry implications
The report underscores that success depends on coordinated advances across ship design, port facilities, and fuel production, supported by regulatory certainty and industry collaboration. A critical unresolved issue is how revenues from emissions pricing under the NZF will be distributed — a decision expected later this year.
DNV concludes that shipping faces a narrowing window to align strategies ahead of the IMO’s final adoption of the NZF in October 2025. The outcome, it warns, will determine how quickly the industry can close the gap between ambition and practical decarbonization.
