By Abdallah el-Kurebe | July 15, 2025 – Russia is heading into a deepening demographic crisis that could leave the country short of nearly 11 million workers by 2030, the government has warned.
Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov sounded the alarm during a high-level meeting with President Vladimir Putin, revealing that over 10 million people are expected to leave the workforce within the next five years due to retirement. Meanwhile, just around 800,000 new jobs are forecast to be created—leaving a massive gap that threatens Russia’s economic future.
Births down, deaths up
The crisis is being fueled by a sharp decline in births and a rise in mortality. In 2024, Russia recorded only 1.22 million births—the lowest since 1999—while deaths rose by 3.3%.
The country’s total population has now dropped to about 146 million and is expected to keep falling in the coming decades.
War and emigration making it worse
The ongoing war in Ukraine has intensified the demographic collapse. Not only has it resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, but it has also triggered a mass exodus of young, skilled Russians.
Many left to avoid conscription or political persecution. The result: a growing brain drain that threatens innovation, productivity, and the long-term health of the economy.
Kremlin’s solution: Have more kids
President Putin has made reversing the trend a national priority. He has called population growth a matter of “ethnic survival” and is urging Russian families to have up to eight children.
To support this, the Russian government is rolling out:
- Cash incentives for large families
- Housing support for young parents
- Tax breaks for families with three or more children
- A revival of the “Mother Heroine” award for women with 10+ children
There are also discussions about reintroducing childless taxes, a Soviet-era policy that penalized adults without children.
Economic warning signs
Economists warn that the labor shortage could lead to:
- Rising wage inflation
- Increased reliance on teenagers and retirees for labor
- Strain on pensions and healthcare systems
Some regions have already begun relaxing retirement rules to keep older workers in jobs longer.
Meanwhile, the Russian Central Bank has flagged signs of an overheating economy, while the Economy Ministry has cautioned that the country could soon face recession if labor and productivity issues are not addressed.
A grim forecast
Demographers believe the worst may still lie ahead.
If current trends continue, Russia’s population could fall to 130–135 million by 2050—and possibly as low as 80 million by the end of the century, according to long-term projections.
What’s next?
With its working-age population shrinking, and the war effort draining resources, Russia must now decide whether to double down on population-boosting incentives—or risk losing economic ground for decades to come.
Putin’s administration is betting on the former. But many experts argue that unless the country also improves political stability, economic openness, and international relations, these efforts may not be enough to reverse the demographic tide.
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