The US election results are in: Donald Trump will lead the country once again. The former president and convicted felon declared victory Wednesday over Vice President Kamala Harris—less than one week before COP29 kicks off in Baku.
The energy transition is inevitable and accelerating in many countries, regardless of US political winds. During Trump’s last administration, the world saw American businesses, states and local governments step up to uphold U.S. climate action. In the immediate wake of the election, representatives from the U.S. government, society, NGOs, academia, and elsewhere are indicating that this will once again be the case.
Here’s what experts say a Trump presidency will mean for this year’s COP—and beyond:
Laurence Tubiana, CEO, European Climate Foundation
The US election result is a setback for global climate action, but the Paris Agreement has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s policies. The context today is very different to 2016. There is powerful economic momentum behind the global transition, which the US has led and gained from, but now risks forfeiting. The devastating toll of recent hurricanes was a grim reminder that all Americans are affected by worsening climate change.
Responding to the demands of their citizens, cities and states across the US are taking bold action. America is All In accounts for 65 % of the population and 68% of GDP. This coalition – and other subnational actors worldwide – deserve a seat at the global table. Europe now has the responsibility and opportunity to step up and lead. By pushing forward with a fair and balanced transition, in close partnership with others, it can show that ambitious climate action protects people, strengthens economies, and builds resilience.
Jennifer Morgan State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action, Germany
We will work with the next US administration wherever possible to strengthen the international rules-based order and deal with shared security challenges, including the climate crisis. For Germany and the EU, the transition to climate neutrality is a cornerstone of our future competitiveness. We therefore will work with all partners towards a level playing field in the race for green industries. We will continue to implement our climate laws and work with international partners across all levels of government, civil society and the private sector on the swift and full implementation of the Paris Agreement.
Raila Odinga, Former Prime Minister of the Republic of Kenya and candidate for Chair of the Africa Union Commission
Actions of the United States on climate change at home and globally will shape how Africa, a continent that is least responsible for the climate crisis yet suffering most from climate impacts, will navigate its development path, and deliver energy access to over 600 million people who are without electricity access today. Climate negotiations at COP29 in Baku, coming on the back of US elections, is a perfect opportunity for the US to step up and be a global steward of the planet. At COP29, the US must lead from the front, and support the delivery of ambitious grants-based and highly concessional climate finance to the trillions of dollars required to meet the adaptation and mitigation needs of developing countries and compensate for losses of damages in a timely and transparent manner.
Christiana Figueres, UN climate chief 2010-2016
The result of this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action, but it cannot and will not halt the changes underway to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Standing with oil and gas is the same as falling behind in a fast-moving world. Clean energy technologies will continue to outcompete fossil fuels, not just because they are healthier, faster, cleaner and more abundant, but because they undercut fossil fuels where they are at their weakest: their unsolvable volatility and inefficiency. Meanwhile, the vital work happening in communities everywhere to regenerate our planet and societies will continue, imbued with a new, even more determined spirit today. Being here in South Africa for the Earthshot Prize makes clear that there is an antidote to doom and despair. It’s action on the ground, and it’s happening in all corners of the Earth.
Izabella Teixeira, former environment minister of Brazil
There is no room for climate denialism in the context of the climate emergency. American society is co-responsible for global warming and, despite Trump’s victory, will undoubtedly be co-responsible for the solutions to the climate crisis.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, former IPCC author
The election of a climate denier to the US Presidency is extremely dangerous for the world. We are already seeing extreme damage and loss of life around the globe due to human-induced warming of 1.3°C. President Trump will not be above the laws of physics and nor will the country that he leads. If Trump follows through with his threat to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the biggest loser will be the United States. We have been there before – the US withdrawal in the first Trump presidency did not cause the Agreement to collapse, as some pundits predicted.
Unwinding US domestic action under the Trump administration will damage efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. The prospects of keeping open the 1.5C goal will ultimately hinge on the level of action taken by all other countries in the next few years and also on what the US does following the Trump presidency’s conclusion.
Mary Robinson, Former Chair, The Elders and former PM of Ireland
I sincerely hope that the recent hurricanes in the United States have caused President Trump to rethink his belief that climate change will create “more oceanfront properties.” It will only bring more death and devastation. It remains to be seen if he will once again isolate the U.S. by pulling out of the Paris Agreement.
The outcome of the U.S. elections should not be used as an excuse by world leaders to avoid taking action against climate change. We should redouble our efforts and prove that we can work together for the common good by delivering the necessary climate finance needed at the upcoming COP 29 in Baku.
Yao Zhe, Global Policy Advisor, Greenpeace East Asia
Once again, China finds itself at a pivotal moment. Expectations are high that China will join key nations in reassuring the world that climate action will continue. In practical terms, a new NDC that outlines clear actions to transition away from fossil fuels will provide the world with the reassurance it needs. Climate played a crucial role in stabilising US-China relations during the Biden time. The Trump administration may undo some of the climate diplomacy gains of recent years, but US-China climate cooperation will continue at the subnational level and among non-state actors.
