The 2025 World Trade Report says artificial intelligence (AI) could boost global trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040 if the right policies are put in place. The growth would come from higher productivity and lower trade costs.
However, the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that to make AI-driven trade growth inclusive, governments must bridge the digital divide, invest in skills for workers, and keep global trade open and predictable.
The report projects that by 2040, global trade could rise by 34-37% under different policy and technology scenarios. Global GDP could also grow by 12-13% in the same period.
According to the WTO, trade will play a key role in supporting AI growth by helping countries access AI-enabling goods like raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs. In 2023, global trade in these goods was valued at \$2.3 trillion.
“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. But access to AI technologies and digital trade is still very unequal,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in the foreword of the report.
“With the right mix of trade, investment, and policies, AI can create new opportunities in all economies. The WTO is ready to support this effort,” she added.
The report highlighted that if low- and middle-income countries close half of their digital infrastructure gap with rich countries, and adopt AI more widely, their incomes could grow by 15% and 14% respectively.
At the same time, the WTO warned that barriers are rising. The number of trade restrictions on AI-related goods grew from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, mostly in high- and upper middle-income countries.
It added that some low-income countries still impose tariffs of up to 45% on AI-enabling goods. To avoid widening inequality, governments must also invest in education, training, and labour market support.
The report emphasized the role of the WTO in ensuring inclusive access to AI. The organization already provides a platform for members to discuss AI-related trade measures. So far, 80 trade concerns raised at the WTO have focused on AI.
Further commitments, such as joining the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updating rules under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, could help make AI more inclusive and affordable.
The new World Trade Report was launched on 17 September at the WTO Public Forum.
Opening the event, DG Okonjo-Iweala said: “This report comes during the worst disruptions to global trade in 80 years. But amid the risks, AI offers a bright spot for growth and development.”
She warned, however, that governments must not repeat past mistakes. “The backlash against globalization happened because countries failed to invest enough in education, retraining, and safety nets. We cannot afford to make the same mistake with AI.”
The report’s findings were presented by WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill and Marc Bacchetta, head of the quantitative economic research unit, followed by a panel discussion.
