Russia’s decade-long support for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad ended in a shocking collapse when a swift rebel offensive toppled his regime in December. The implications of this defeat extend far beyond Syria, threatening Russia’s geopolitical standing, particularly in Africa, where Moscow has aligned itself with military juntas and autocratic governments.
The Institute for the Study of War described the event as a “strategic political defeat for Moscow,” noting that Russia’s failure—or unwillingness—to reinforce Assad’s regime as rebels made rapid gains could erode its credibility as a reliable security partner.
As Russian forces scrambled to evacuate, convoys clogged Syria’s roads, retreating to the Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base. Warships, fighter jets, and cargo planes departed the region in chaos, marking the loss of a crucial ally in Russia’s bid to project power across the Mediterranean and Africa.
“This is a humiliation for the Kremlin and a potentially serious blow to its regional influence,” said Sky News correspondent Ivor Bennett.
Strategic impact on Africa
The Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base were critical logistical hubs for Russia’s operations in Africa, enabling the movement of troops, supplies, and mercenaries to key locations across the continent. With the new Syrian leadership’s stance on allowing Russian forces to retain these bases uncertain, Russia’s ability to maintain its military presence in Africa hangs in the balance.
“Without a reliable air bridge, Russia’s ability to project power in Africa collapses,” said Anas el-Gomati, director of the Libya-based Sadeq Institute. Cargo planes carrying military supplies and personnel can only reach Libya directly from Russia if empty, highlighting the strategic importance of refueling stops in Syria.
Rybar, a prominent Russian military channel, suggested that Moscow might need to strengthen its presence in Libya and Sudan to compensate for the loss of Syrian bases.
Reputational and operational setbacks
The loss of Syria’s bases could severely hinder Russia’s ability to support an estimated 20,000 mercenaries stationed across countries like Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Mali, and Niger. John Foreman, a former British defense attaché in Moscow, described the loss as a “significant strategic setback,” emphasizing Russia’s heavy investment in these bases over the past seven years.
The reputational damage may prove even more costly. Assad’s last-minute exile to Moscow symbolized the failure of Russia’s so-called “regime survival package,” a key selling point to African military rulers.
“Leaders in Mali, the Central African Republic, and elsewhere may now question Moscow’s ability—or willingness—to come to their aid in a crisis,” said Federico Manfredi Firmian of the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.
With Russia already stretched thin by its ongoing war in Ukraine, the fall of Syria compounds doubts about its capacity to deliver on its promises to African allies. For many, this may signal the need to seek alternative security partnerships, threatening Russia’s influence on the continent.
ADF
