Last week, I made a presentation on the above topic at the Arewa Consultative Forum 25 Anniversary Celebrations in Kaduna. I accepted the challenge because the formulation of the topic is an indication that there is a new interest in trend analysis or futures studies within the leadership of this organisation. This is an interdisciplinary field that systematically explores and analyses possible, deplorable, probable, and/or preferable futures to inform decision-making today.
A trend analysis of where Arewa is headed in the next 25 years, 2050, will reveal a clear pathway to ANNIHILATION. There is no soft way of describing the outcome we are currently chasing. Every day, we are warmed that to survive as a people, we must change our ways and move away from the massive level of public corruption and self-aggrandisement that makes it virtually impossible for governments to do their work of producing public goods for the people – security, welfare, good health, infrastructure and so on. The simple message from trend analysis is that we must change, we must improve governance or perish.
My trend analysis for the next decade is as follows – I am not sufficiently bold to talk of 25 years’.
The Arewa Consultative Forum would be unable to organise another big event similar to this 2025 bash because their leaders would to too scared of abductions and random killings to travel from their base to Kaduna. In desperation, ACF may change their standing rules to meet in Abuja, and if that is not possible, in Dubai where many of them will be based.
The struggles for the emancipation of Biafra, Niger Delta and Oduduwa Republics from the exploding Federal Republic of Nigeria would have reached an advanced stage and the “international community” would gleefully line up supporting one side or the other, thankful that their dream of 1967 is coming to pass.
Arewa would discover with shock and dismay that there is no unified Republic emerging in the North as its constituent zones of the Caliphate, Borno, Middle Belt and the majority, i.e. the others, realise that they have no interest in a marriage of convenience BUT have no capacity or will for independent existence.
The winners, to our collective shock, will be the six million private citizens who have procured small arms and light weapons and are using them to rob their neighbours, kill the men, sexually assault the women, stop farming and promote starvation turning this beautiful homeland into hell.
This is what projections from trend analysis are telling us as things stand today. In other words, it is the worst-case scenario. The purpose of trend analysis however is to ensure that the worst case does not happen. That preventive measures are taken to ensure that much better outcomes emerge.
Nigeria’s population is forecast to increase to over 450 million by 2050, by which time it will be the third most populous country in the world. Although Nigeria has great agricultural potential, the sector is unable to meet the nutritional demands of a rapidly growing population. Nigeria has made little progress in export diversification. The country remains a rentier economy but, currently, even that is lost as a significant portion of the petroleum produced is stolen and sold by private, government and security cabals that have become pipeline bandits. Macroeconomic instability, a skills shortage, an unfriendly business environment and infrastructure deficits constrain productivity and growth in the non-oil sector. The situation is bad. Nonetheless, with aggressive but reasonable policy interventions, Arewa could have a significantly brighter future if we have a leadership with vision and competence.
Nigeria can and must address the security challenges it faces by providing the leadership for the security forces to be properly equipped and encouraged to do its work. It is still possible to promote national cohesion and social inclusion by ensuring a fair distribution of socio-economic amenities across the states. The government needs to set up a national social protection programme to support the poorest and most vulnerable to reduce poverty and inequality. Also, there is the necessity of intensifying the struggle against corruption, improving public financial management and domestic revenue mobilisation by accelerating digitalisation to enhance tax efficiency, and addressing the infrastructure gap by creating an enabling environment for public-private-partnerships in infrastructure development.
Public Trust in the Nigerian State Project has collapsed and the country’s political settlement which has been based on diverting public resources for the benefit of regional elite coalitions is imploding under the impulsion of debilitating poverty in the North, the youth bulge and the rising agency of the precariat. The result is the massive rise of insecurity and the youth procure and use small arms and light weapons to extract their own share of the famous “national cake”.
Poverty in Nigeria is not evenly spread. The number of people living in poverty in the Northern region has been increasing since 2011 and in 2016, it represented 87 percent of all poor in Nigeria. In contrast, the South is achieving greater progress, with around 12 percent of its population living in poverty in 2016. In general, inequality has increased in recent years, as indicated by the Gini coefficient increase from 0.36 to 0.42 between 2011 and 2016, a situation that fuels instability and conflicts which is our concern in this report.
The most important contemporary problem for Nigeria is the lack of opportunity for the youth. We have developed a huge youth bulge that has been growing rapidly. This is happening at a time in which formal opportunities for employment are declining and having a job has become a minority experience. The North is the most affected region in the country in this regard. The North, especially the North East and North West are the most backward region of Nigeria in all social sectors. It has the highest birth rate in the contemporary world, the lowest level of economic development, the least access to education and the poorest network of health facilities and staff. The population of the North is growing at a higher rate than the rest of the country thereby deepening poverty rates. There is a very large proportion of Northern youth who are not in school, not in the family house and not in regular paid employment. They live precarious lives in urban centres doing menial daily-paid jobs and are engaged in the informal sector. Living in the cities, these marginalised youth who are often glued to the social media know about the massive wealth being enjoyed by a few and conspicuous consumption of the obscene ruling class. They feel marginalized, are often angry and feel completely abandoned by society. They are a precariat ready for violence and their time has come.
One of the most important variables in determining the advancement or retardation of a people is the quality of the leadership they have. Leaders can inspire and mobilise the people towards progress or the opposite. They can promote unity and show the necessary direction of travel to lead to progress or create conditions for the disintegration and decomposition of the Nation. The general impression amongst Nigerians is that leadership is about enjoyment, ceremonies, pomp and pageantry, living the high life in government house, moving around in comfortable jets and having direct access to monies in the public treasury. The reality however is that leadership is hard work. It requires loads of self-discipline and sacrifice to achieve set objectives.
In his classic lecture on leadership qualities – “Mutumin Kirki: The Concept of the Good Man in Hausa Society”; Anthony Kirk-Green defined the attributes that people seek for in good leaders. They are truthfulness, compassion, integrity, trust and generosity for those in need. Wealth and material success were not considered important attributes in the selection of leaders. Today, those who can provide the biggest bribes for the biggest number emerge as our leaders and this culture must change. We must develop an overwhelming consensus that political leadership cannot remain the only job for which no qualification appears necessary except to have a lot of money, usually, stolen money. The following criteria are proposed to guide citizens as they set out to nominate and elect their next set of political leaders
Only people of proven integrity should be considered for leadership. People know who are the persons of good character in their communities and it is necessary that before party primaries, widespread discussions are held to identify people with integrity to be considered for positions.
Leadership requires people with competence and a vision of what they want to achieve for their society. There has to be minimum education standards, degree or higher national diploma. Finally, age and good health are key factors. People over seventy years should be gently but firmly shoved out of the political arena because they are unlikely to have the energy for the enormous work involved in running such a large and complex region.
Finally, governance success requires respect and knowledge of how democracies work. The good profile for a democratic player includes respect for due process and the rule of law. Even more important is the disposition to be always ready to promote participation of members – community, political party, assembly etc. In order words, people with an ingrained civic culture.
