Heatwaves: Ibrahim Bello, 54, walks to his farm in Karama community, Jigawa State, carrying a hoe on his shoulder and humming a local tune. His demeanour is upbeat, but his face reveals underlying concerns.
At the start of last year’s July planting season, Bello borrowed N120,000 ($120) to begin farming wheat and sorghum. He readied the land and hired labourers to plant the crops, expecting rain to soften the soil. However, the month passed with only a few drops of precipitation. The crops never sprouted. Bello planted again in December but, yet again, any rain that fell was infrequent and no match for the extreme heat.
“I lost a lot last year and got into heavy debt,” he says. “The seasons used to be consistent, but now they’re uncertain.”
Bello’s story has become increasingly familiar in Jigawa State in northern Nigeria. Here, weather patterns have become more unpredictable and extreme, disrupting traditional farming seasons, and temperatures have risen.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s mean annual temperature has increased by 0.19C per decade over the past 30 years. Scientific projections show the country is set to become hotter, even with strong mitigation measures. By 2100, models predict an average temperature in Nigeria of over 32C under a business-as-usual scenario or 28.66C in a best-case scenario.
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A 2023 study defined 29C as the upper threshold of the “climate niche” – the range of temperatures within which humans have been able to flourish for millennia. Scientists found that very few communities have ever lived in areas hotter than 29C but calculated that 2 billion people could be pushed past this threshold as soon as 2030 under current policies.
Heatwaves and high temperatures significantly threaten food security. Research suggests that for every 1C rise in global mean temperature, agricultural yields could fall for wheat by 6%, rice by 3.2%, and maize by 3.2%. In 2020, maize crops experienced nine fewer growth days compared to the 30-year average.
Aduragbemi Victor Fasakin, an agricultural expert at Advice Farm, an integrated organic farm that produces organic food based in Abuja, explains that heat waves can also cause additional difficulties with knock-on effects for farming. High temperatures can make farm work dangerous, contributing to labour shortages for planting, weeding, and harvesting. Under extreme conditions, energy infrastructure can also suffer. “Even if water is available, limited energy access due to heat-related strain on the power grid can hinder irrigation pumping,” he says.
Fasakin also notes that while farmers can focus on growing crops better suited to withstanding the heat, the more extreme weather makes it harder for them to diversify their output, a strategy farmers use to reduce risk.
Helping farmers amid heatwaves
In late-2023, Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Agricultural and Food Security launched a dry season wheat farming initiative to address some of the challenges facing farmers. Launched in Jigawa state and supported by a $134 million loan facility from the African Development Bank (AfDB), the programme aims to help 150,000-250,000 farmers with an effective 50% subsidy on agricultural inputs.
Farmers pay 12.5% of the costs of seeds, fertilisers, herbicides, and other items up front. A further 37.5% is owed post-harvest and guaranteed in the meantime by the Nigeria Incentive-Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL).
Umar Namadi, Governor of Jigawa, has said that each farmer is supported by the equivalent of approximately N361,000 ($230) per hectare. The state government also committed to provide free high-quality extension services, engaging and training 1,440 new extension agents to ensure comprehensive support for the wheat farmers.
Several farmers in Jigawa state have welcomed the government initiative. Harizu Usama says that the support provided some financial stability and helped him produce and sell 20 bags of wheat, earning him N350,000 ($225). “Inputs that are hard to get are now cheaper and more available,” he says.
Another farmer, Mubaraq Issa, says the support has helped keep agriculture viable for him. “Before the programme, I almost gave up on farming,” he says. “Wheat farming is profitable due to the government’s support, which has increased my harvests. This has allowed me to expand my farming business and hire help.”
Both farmers, however, emphasised the need to extend support and ensure that it is not distributed based on political connections. “Some people who aren’t farmers received and sold the support items, while actual farmers are left out,” adds Issa.
Climate support across the board
While Nigeria’s dry season support has eased some challenges for farmers, climate experts stress that further action to confront the impacts of heatwaves is needed.
Mustapha Umar, an environmental services manager in Jigawa, calls for reforestation and the restoration of lost vegetation cover to reduce the heat island effect and biodiversity loss. He adds that early warning systems that use meteorological data to anticipate upcoming heatwaves and alert locals can be critical in helping communities to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of heatwaves.
“Collaboration between policymakers, local communities, and stakeholders is essential to implement and get the benefits of these measures effectively and build long-term resilience to heatwaves in the region,” he says.
Chizoba Nzeakor, a Climate and Clean Energy expert, emphasises the need for a multifaceted approach covering not just agricultural support but insurance schemes, water conservation techniques, and community education. Moreover, she stresses the importance of domestic and international support for all climate measures.
“Many solutions fail in Africa not due to a lack of innovation, but because of insufficient support,” says Nzeakor. “Unlike Europe, where numerous opportunities and subsidies exist, African innovators struggle without such backing.”
While some of this funding can be raised domestically, she points out that international funds will be critical to financing climate plans and that these will need to be transparent, efficient and accountable. She cites the 2023 flood crisis in Nigeria when, she says, substantial international aid was pledged but little was seen in terms of tangible support.
“The World Bank announced funds for flood relief, but nobody knows how that money was used. There must be proper monitoring to ensure that funds reach those who need them,” she says.
